Mon, Nov 29, 2010·Scotiabank Place, Ottawa
Edmonton Oilers 4, Ottawa Senators 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 64% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EDM | 07 | 110 | 38 | 425 |
| OTT | 111 | 05 | 07 | 123 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:30OTTNick FolignoAssists: Chris Neil · Backhand, 0.17 xG0–1
- P2 18:39EDMTom GilbertPPAssists: Sam Gagner · Slap, 0.04 xG1–1
- P3 4:19EDMAndrew CoglianoGWGAssists: Gilbert Brule, Dustin Penner · Tip-in, 0.10 xG2–1
- P3 12:48EDMGilbert BruleAssists: Andrew Cogliano, Dustin Penner · Wrist, 0.18 xG3–1
- P3 18:05EDMTaylor HallENAssists: Shawn Horcoff, Jordan Eberle · Wrist, 0.60 xG4–1
Penalties (8)
- P1 3:22EDMRyan Whitney: High sticking2 min
- P1 7:11EDMSam Gagner: Tripping2 min
- P1 17:29EDMShawn Horcoff: Hooking2 min
- P2 3:29OTTJesse Winchester: High sticking2 min
- P2 8:55OTTPeter Regin: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 13:14OTTJesse Winchester: Hooking2 min
- P2 17:06OTTChris Neil: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 5:02OTTNick Foligno: Boarding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kelly won the faceoff against Fraser
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestJacques – Fraser – Stortini4:06
xG 0.21–0.00 (100%)attempts 8–1goals 0–0
- Penner – Brule – Cogliano10:10
xG 0.42–0.26 (61%)attempts 10–7goals 2–1
- Jones – Gagner – Paajarvi7:44
xG 0.16–0.47 (25%)attempts 8–10goals 0–0
- Horcoff – Eberle – Hall12:57
xG 0.14–0.47 (23%)attempts 5–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Foster – Smid7:53
xG 0.09–0.13 (42%)attempts 5–8goals 0–0
- Vandermeer – Smid3:15
xG 0.02–0.11 (17%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Vandermeer – Whitney12:44
xG 0.40–0.50 (44%)attempts 11–8goals 1–0
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestAlfredsson – Spezza – Regin9:30
xG 0.86–0.31 (73%)attempts 8–4goals 0–1
- Neil – Kelly – Foligno8:14
xG 0.50–0.09 (85%)attempts 8–8goals 1–0
- Ruutu – Shannon – Winchester5:18
xG 0.06–0.32 (16%)attempts 6–7goals 0–0
- Kovalev – Fisher – Michalek12:48
xG 0.16–0.44 (26%)attempts 8–14goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestGonchar – Phillips10:52
xG 0.67–0.30 (69%)attempts 8–8goals 1–1
- Gonchar – Karlsson4:48
xG 0.19–0.03 (86%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
- Kuba – Karlsson11:31
xG 0.59–0.46 (56%)attempts 11–11goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
OTT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line OTT is favoured, below it EDM. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 64% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (OTT − EDM), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).