Mon, Nov 29, 2010·Scotiabank Saddledome, Calgary
Minnesota Wild 0, Calgary Flames 3
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 73% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 012 | 07 | 013 | 032 |
| CGY | 011 | 210 | 110 | 331 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 3:08CGYJay BouwmeesterGWGAssists: Jarome Iginla, Alex Tanguay · Snap, 0.09 xG0–1
- P2 3:26CGYJarome IginlaAssists: Alex Tanguay, Mark Giordano · Wrist, 0.16 xG0–2
- P3 18:31CGYNiklas HagmanPPAssists: Olli Jokinen, Rene Bourque · Wrist, 0.16 xG0–3
Penalties (6)
- P1 6:31CGYRobyn Regehr: Hooking2 min
- P1 18:59MINCal Clutterbuck: Slashing2 min
- P2 13:35CGYMatt Stajan: Hooking2 min
- P3 7:32CGYMark Giordano: Interference2 min
- P3 11:06MINNick Schultz: Hooking2 min
- P3 17:20MINBrent Burns: Tripping2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Backlund won the faceoff against Madden
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestCullen – Havlat – Brodziak10:59
xG 0.26–0.07 (79%)attempts 12–4goals 0–0
- Brunette – Miettinen – Koivu4:40
xG 0.21–0.11 (66%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Nystrom – Staubitz – Kassian3:24
xG 0.13–0.05 (72%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
- Brunette – Koivu – O'Sullivan8:14
xG 0.24–0.24 (50%)attempts 2–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBarker – Spurgeon11:23
xG 0.60–0.10 (86%)attempts 16–6goals 0–0
- Zanon – Spurgeon2:25
xG 0.00–0.07 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0
- Zanon – Zidlicky10:29
xG 0.34–0.43 (44%)attempts 10–15goals 0–1
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestIginla – Tanguay – Stajan10:38
xG 0.70–0.06 (92%)attempts 14–6goals 2–0
- Jokinen – Hagman – Backlund10:31
xG 0.26–0.30 (46%)attempts 6–7goals 0–0
- Moss – Glencross – Bourque8:00
xG 0.08–0.14 (35%)attempts 4–6goals 0–0
- Morrison – Kostopoulos – Jackman5:33
xG 0.11–0.24 (30%)attempts 5–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSarich – Giordano14:16
xG 0.65–0.43 (60%)attempts 15–12goals 1–0
- Babchuk – Mikkelson14:26
xG 0.30–0.10 (75%)attempts 12–11goals 0–0
- Regehr – Bouwmeester16:39
xG 0.58–0.56 (51%)attempts 13–13goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CGY's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CGY is favoured, below it MIN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 73% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CGY − MIN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).