Tue, Nov 30, 2010·Bridgestone Arena, Nashville
Phoenix Coyotes 0, Nashville Predators 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Phoenix Coyotes win this game 59% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHX | 010 | 013 | 010 | 033 |
| NSH | 14 | 111 | 18 | 323 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:36NSHShea WeberPPGWGAssists: Patric Hornqvist, Steve Sullivan · Snap, 0.05 xG0–1
- P2 12:48NSHCal O'ReillyPPAssists: Steve Sullivan, Ryan Suter · Wrist, 0.17 xG0–2
- P3 19:35NSHJordin TootooENAssists: Jerred Smithson · Wrist, 0.55 xG0–3
Penalties (10)
- P1 1:02NSHJoel Ward: Hooking2 min
- P1 2:26PHXDavid Schlemko: Interference2 min · PPG
- P1 7:31NSHRyan Suter: Hooking2 min
- P2 9:00PHXRadim Vrbata: Hooking2 min
- P2 10:51PHXDerek Morris: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 12:01PHXAdrian Aucoin: Hooking2 min
- P2 16:57NSHSergei Kostitsyn: Tripping2 min
- P3 4:49PHXScottie Upshall: High sticking2 min
- P3 7:41PHXMartin Hanzal: High sticking2 min
- P3 16:40PHXKeith Yandle: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Goc won the faceoff against Fiddler
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Phoenix Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestWhitney – Vrbata – Hanzal9:53
xG 0.53–0.06 (90%)attempts 13–4goals 0–0
- Doan – Upshall – Turris7:15
xG 0.32–0.04 (89%)attempts 9–3goals 0–0
- Doan – Belanger – Wolski2:05
xG 0.11–0.03 (81%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Upshall – Stempniak – Turris2:59
xG 0.01–0.13 (7%)attempts 1–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMorris – Yandle15:01
xG 0.54–0.35 (61%)attempts 17–10goals 0–0
- Yonkman – Schlemko9:08
xG 0.34–0.18 (65%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Aucoin – Jovanovski11:15
xG 0.34–0.33 (51%)attempts 11–11goals 0–0
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestDumont – Hornqvist – Spaling4:42
xG 0.32–0.07 (83%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
- Erat – Goc – Kostitsyn9:25
xG 0.27–0.24 (53%)attempts 9–12goals 0–0
- Sullivan – O'Reilly – Wilson8:38
xG 0.00–0.11 (0%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Smithson – Ward – Tootoo8:13
xG 0.21–0.71 (23%)attempts 7–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestO'Brien – Franson7:43
xG 0.39–0.21 (65%)attempts 8–7goals 0–0
- Bouillon – Klein13:10
xG 0.18–0.38 (33%)attempts 8–17goals 0–0
- Suter – Weber16:25
xG 0.21–0.64 (25%)attempts 9–16goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NSH is favoured, below it PHX. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Phoenix Coyotes win this game 59% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NSH − PHX), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).