Tue, Nov 30, 2010·Pepsi Center, Denver
Atlanta Thrashers 3, Colorado Avalanche 2 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 71% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ATL | 115 | 06 | 19 | 11 | 331 |
| COL | 08 | 09 | 213 | 01 | 231 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 10:41ATLRich PeverleyAssists: Andrew Ladd, Zach Bogosian · Wrist, 0.01 xG1–0
- P3 1:43COLMatt DucheneUnassisted · Wrist, 0.08 xG1–1
- P3 10:10COLDavid JonesPPAssists: Kevin Shattenkirk, Milan Hejduk · Tip-in, 0.14 xG1–2
- P3 13:48ATLDustin ByfuglienAssists: Toby Enstrom, Alexander Burmistrov · Slap, 0.04 xG2–2
- OT 1:49ATLAnthony StewartGWGAssists: Dustin Byfuglien, Ron Hainsey · Wrap-around, 0.02 xG3–2
Penalties (8)
- P1 5:57COLMilan Hejduk: Holding2 min
- P1 7:55COLRyan O'Byrne: Cross checking2 min
- P1 19:57COLKevin Shattenkirk: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 10:52COLCody McLeod: Charging2 min
- P2 14:43ATLNik Antropov: Hooking2 min
- P2 19:24ATLAndrew Ladd: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P3 10:02ATLEvander Kane: Interference2 min · PPG
- P3 18:59ATLNik Antropov: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Peverley won the faceoff against Stastny
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Atlanta Thrashers
Forward lines
- bestStewart – Little – Kane9:45
xG 0.30–0.22 (58%)attempts 8–7goals 0–0
- Antropov – Eager – Burmistrov10:18
xG 0.19–0.13 (60%)attempts 7–8goals 0–0
- Ladd – Peverley – Bergfors10:13
xG 0.25–0.19 (56%)attempts 14–9goals 1–0
- Boulton – Thorburn – Slater5:52
xG 0.03–0.50 (5%)attempts 3–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSopel – Hainsey12:51
xG 0.30–0.16 (66%)attempts 9–10goals 0–0
- Oduya – Bogosian13:09
xG 0.31–0.24 (56%)attempts 14–11goals 1–0
- Enstrom – Byfuglien15:57
xG 0.29–0.97 (23%)attempts 14–22goals 0–1
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestYip – Winnik – O'Reilly2:05
xG 0.40–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Hejduk – Porter – Stastny11:38
xG 0.34–0.06 (85%)attempts 15–7goals 0–1
- Winnik – McLeod – O'Reilly6:08
xG 0.10–0.02 (81%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
- Mauldin – Jones – Duchene3:33
xG 0.05–0.19 (20%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHunwick – Wilson9:33
xG 0.65–0.18 (78%)attempts 16–10goals 0–0
- Liles – O'Byrne14:29
xG 0.32–0.23 (58%)attempts 15–9goals 0–1
- Quincey – Shattenkirk13:37
xG 0.18–0.31 (37%)attempts 8–11goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
COL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line COL is favoured, below it ATL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 71% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (COL − ATL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).