Wed, Dec 1, 2010·Centre Bell, Montreal
Edmonton Oilers 4, Montréal Canadiens 3 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 66% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EDM | 19 | 013 | 28 | 12 | 432 |
| MTL | 115 | 211 | 012 | 01 | 339 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 13:05MTLScott GomezPPAssists: Michael Cammalleri, Mathieu Darche · Wrist, 0.09 xG0–1
- P1 17:45EDMKurtis FosterPPAssists: Sam Gagner, Ales Hemsky · Slap, 0.07 xG1–1
- P2 8:01MTLMathieu DarchePPAssists: Michael Cammalleri, Roman Hamrlik · Wrist, 0.50 xG1–2
- P2 10:02MTLRoman HamrlikAssists: Benoit Pouliot, Lars Eller · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–3
- P3 10:09EDMAles HemskyAssists: Magnus Paajarvi, Jim Vandermeer · Wrist, 0.17 xG2–3
- P3 13:17EDMSam GagnerSHAssists: Ales Hemsky · Wrist, 0.07 xG3–3
- OT 2:28EDMDustin PennerGWGUnassisted · Backhand, 0.06 xG4–3
Penalties (8)
- P1 3:14MTLJaroslav Spacek: Tripping2 min
- P1 8:01MTLJeff Halpern: Tripping2 min
- P1 11:25EDMTheo Peckham: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P1 16:57MTLBenoit Pouliot: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P2 6:50EDMJean-Francois Jacques: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 16:23MTLJeff Halpern: Tripping2 min
- P3 3:24MTLRoman Hamrlik: High sticking2 min
- P3 11:36EDMShawn Horcoff: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Halpern won the faceoff against Fraser
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestHemsky – Gagner – Paajarvi12:08
xG 0.68–0.26 (72%)attempts 13–8goals 1–0
- Brule – Cogliano – Paajarvi3:09
xG 0.06–0.03 (65%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Horcoff – Eberle – Hall10:45
xG 0.44–0.59 (43%)attempts 10–12goals 0–0
- Jacques – Fraser – Jones5:45
xG 0.02–0.36 (5%)attempts 2–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestVandermeer – Whitney13:51
xG 0.69–0.52 (57%)attempts 12–10goals 1–0
- Vandermeer – Peckham3:08
xG 0.06–0.06 (51%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Gilbert – Peckham12:59
xG 0.31–0.69 (31%)attempts 5–13goals 0–0
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestGionta – Plekanec – Kostitsyn9:12
xG 0.63–0.36 (64%)attempts 13–9goals 0–0
- Gomez – Moen – Cammalleri9:43
xG 0.25–0.18 (58%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
- Darche – Pouliot – Eller8:52
xG 0.27–0.21 (56%)attempts 9–6goals 1–0
- Halpern – Lapierre – Pyatt7:46
xG 0.12–0.37 (25%)attempts 4–4goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestPicard – Subban15:28
xG 0.95–0.19 (83%)attempts 17–6goals 0–0
- Hamrlik – Spacek13:08
xG 0.76–0.63 (55%)attempts 17–13goals 0–0
- Gill – Gorges12:32
xG 0.49–0.42 (53%)attempts 11–10goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MTL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MTL is favoured, below it EDM. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 66% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MTL − EDM), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).