Wed, Dec 1, 2010·Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia
Boston Bruins 3, Philadelphia Flyers 0
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 53% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS | 210 | 014 | 18 | 332 |
| PHI | 015 | 016 | 010 | 041 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:40BOSPatrice BergeronPPGWGUnassisted · Wrist, 0.17 xG1–0
- P1 15:12BOSTyler SeguinAssists: Michael Ryder, Brad Marchand · Wrist, 0.10 xG2–0
- P3 18:12BOSMilan LucicENAssists: David Krejci · Wrist, 0.65 xG3–0
Penalties (11)
- P1 4:51PHINikolay Zherdev: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 8:04BOSMilan Lucic: Tripping2 min
- P1 16:35PHIJody Shelley: Fighting5 min
- P1 16:35BOSShawn Thornton: Fighting5 min
- P1 18:10BOSDennis Seidenberg: Tripping2 min
- P2 1:23BOSDavid Krejci: Hooking2 min
- P2 8:36BOSShawn Thornton: Holding2 min
- P2 12:49PHIJody Shelley: Roughing2 min
- P2 15:13PHIScott Hartnell: Slashing2 min
- P2 15:13BOSTim Thomas: Roughing2 min
- P2 17:20BOSAndrew Ference: Penalty shot hooking on breakaway0 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Richards won the faceoff against Bergeron
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestHorton – Krejci – Lucic11:04
xG 0.49–0.25 (66%)attempts 14–11goals 0–0
- Ryder – Marchand – Seguin6:01
xG 0.29–0.09 (77%)attempts 7–6goals 1–0
- Recchi – Bergeron – Wheeler8:24
xG 0.80–0.76 (51%)attempts 8–11goals 0–0
- Ryder – Campbell – Caron3:20
xG 0.07–0.15 (33%)attempts 2–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestChara – Boychuk5:20
xG 0.76–0.06 (93%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
- Chara – McQuaid2:42
xG 0.08–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Boychuk – Stuart2:15
xG 0.12–0.05 (72%)attempts 3–1goals 1–0
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestRichards – Nodl – van Riemsdyk5:49
xG 0.56–0.09 (86%)attempts 8–5goals 0–0
- Richards – Giroux – Nodl5:27
xG 0.42–0.10 (80%)attempts 8–2goals 0–0
- Brière – Hartnell – Leino9:22
xG 0.74–0.65 (53%)attempts 15–9goals 0–1
- Zherdev – Carter – Giroux6:25
xG 0.26–0.19 (58%)attempts 8–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestCoburn – Carle2:26
xG 0.51–0.17 (75%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
- Timonen – Coburn13:30
xG 1.00–0.75 (57%)attempts 21–9goals 0–0
- Pronger – Carle11:32
xG 0.54–0.37 (60%)attempts 13–10goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHI is favoured, below it BOS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 53% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PHI − BOS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).