Wed, Dec 1, 2010·Nationwide Arena, Columbus
Nashville Predators 4, Columbus Blue Jackets 3 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 59% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NSH | 110 | 18 | 19 | 02 | 1 | 429 |
| CBJ | 010 | 17 | 211 | 03 | 0 | 331 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 17:02NSHColin WilsonAssists: Cal O'Reilly, Martin Erat · Wrist, 0.15 xG1–0
- P2 7:11CBJAntoine VermetteAssists: Jan Hejda, R.J. Umberger · Wrist, 0.28 xG1–1
- P2 16:29NSHSergei KostitsynAssists: Martin Erat, Marcel Goc · Deflected, 0.15 xG2–1
- P3 2:01CBJKris RussellAssists: Antoine Vermette, Steve Mason · Slap, 0.11 xG2–2
- P3 10:01CBJAntoine VermetteAssists: Rick Nash, R.J. Umberger · Wrist, 0.11 xG2–3
- P3 11:38NSHKevin KleinUnassisted · Slap, 0.02 xG3–3
Shootout
- 1. NSH Cal O'Reilly stopped
- 2. CBJ Jakub Voracek stopped
- 3. NSH Steve Sullivan scored
- 4. CBJ Rick Nash stopped
- 5. NSH Martin Erat stopped
- 6. CBJ Antoine Vermette stopped
Penalties (9)
- P1 5:48CBJDerick Brassard: Tripping2 min
- P1 13:41NSHRyan Suter: Holding2 min
- P1 14:54CBJAnton Stralman: Tripping2 min
- P2 3:52CBJEthan Moreau: Tripping2 min
- P2 6:22NSHJerred Smithson: High sticking2 min
- P2 6:42CBJAnton Stralman: Hooking2 min
- P2 11:56CBJDerick Brassard: Hooking2 min
- P2 19:59NSHColin Wilson: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P3 12:19NSHCal O'Reilly: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Pahlsson won the faceoff against Goc
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestErat – Goc – Kostitsyn9:56
xG 0.86–0.18 (83%)attempts 13–4goals 2–0
- Smithson – Ward – Tootoo6:54
xG 0.03–0.31 (10%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
- Dumont – Hornqvist – Spaling4:20
xG 0.17–0.49 (26%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
- Sullivan – O'Reilly – Wilson9:04
xG 0.00–0.69 (0%)attempts 0–15goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestBouillon – Klein17:29
xG 1.23–0.32 (79%)attempts 22–6goals 3–0
- Suter – Weber15:14
xG 0.49–0.72 (41%)attempts 9–15goals 0–2
- O'Brien – Franson7:55
xG 0.24–0.75 (24%)attempts 5–11goals 0–0
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestVermette – Umberger – Dorsett5:45
xG 0.49–0.11 (82%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- MacKenzie – Wilson – Boll6:03
xG 0.22–0.03 (89%)attempts 6–1goals 0–0
- Nash – Brassard – Voracek8:45
xG 0.35–0.18 (67%)attempts 11–5goals 0–1
- Vermette – Umberger – Nash4:25
xG 0.25–0.30 (45%)attempts 5–5goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestHejda – Stralman10:57
xG 0.60–0.47 (56%)attempts 6–12goals 0–1
- Commodore – Russell9:33
xG 0.18–0.22 (45%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
- Klesla – Tyutin13:24
xG 0.64–0.70 (48%)attempts 14–10goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CBJ's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CBJ is favoured, below it NSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 59% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CBJ − NSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).