Wed, Dec 1, 2010·Scottrade Center, St. Louis
Washington Capitals 4, St. Louis Blues 1
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 67% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH | 17 | 110 | 29 | 426 |
| STL | 013 | 110 | 015 | 138 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 8:12WSHBrooks LaichPPAssists: Nicklas Backstrom, Alexander Semin · Wrist, 0.17 xG1–0
- P2 10:02WSHBoyd GordonGWGAssists: Tom Poti, DJ King · Wrist, 0.32 xG2–0
- P2 19:28STLAlexander SteenAssists: B.J. Crombeen, Erik Johnson · Wrist, 0.01 xG2–1
- P3 7:06WSHNicklas BackstromAssists: Mike Knuble, John Carlson · Slap, 0.11 xG3–1
- P3 19:25WSHNicklas BackstromENAssists: Alex Ovechkin, John Erskine · Tip-in, 0.68 xG4–1
Penalties (6)
- P1 3:30STLJay McClement: Boarding2 min
- P1 7:13STLBrad Boyes: Too many men on the ice2 min · PPG
- P1 11:24WSHAlexander Semin: Tripping2 min
- P1 17:51WSHTom Poti: Hooking2 min
- P2 14:27WSHMike Green: Slashing2 min
- P3 14:28WSHJeff Schultz: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Backes won the faceoff against Johansson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestBradley – Gordon – King6:33
xG 0.58–0.08 (88%)attempts 8–3goals 1–0
- Chimera – Hendricks – Fehr7:53
xG 0.47–0.42 (53%)attempts 10–13goals 0–0
- Knuble – Ovechkin – Backstrom12:10
xG 0.42–0.49 (46%)attempts 9–14goals 1–0
- Laich – Semin – Johansson9:02
xG 0.17–0.62 (22%)attempts 4–16goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPoti – Erskine6:44
xG 0.71–0.20 (78%)attempts 6–9goals 1–0
- Schultz – Alzner2:28
xG 0.07–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Erskine – Green3:02
xG 0.10–0.11 (46%)attempts 1–5goals 0–0
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestMcDonald – Boyes – Steen2:34
xG 0.36–0.05 (88%)attempts 9–3goals 0–0
- McClement – Steen – Crombeen9:00
xG 0.48–0.24 (67%)attempts 9–4goals 0–0
- Scatchard – Winchester – Della Rovere4:54
xG 0.00–0.05 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–0
- Sobotka – D'Agostini – Berglund6:05
xG 0.16–0.35 (31%)attempts 9–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestJackman – Pietrangelo10:27
xG 0.67–0.30 (69%)attempts 17–8goals 1–0
- Brewer – Pietrangelo2:07
xG 0.21–0.08 (71%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Jackman – Johnson3:43
xG 0.30–0.29 (50%)attempts 6–5goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
STL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line STL is favoured, below it WSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 67% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (STL − WSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).