Wed, Dec 1, 2010·Honda Center, Anaheim
Florida Panthers 3, Anaheim Ducks 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 54% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA | 08 | 113 | 211 | 332 |
| ANA | 19 | 212 | 28 | 529 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 14:01ANAGeorge ParrosAssists: Kyle Chipchura · Wrist, 0.14 xG0–1
- P2 6:04ANARyan GetzlafAssists: Toni Lydman, Corey Perry · Tip-in, 0.43 xG0–2
- P2 6:54ANAGeorge ParrosAssists: Kyle Chipchura · Wrist, 0.11 xG0–3
- P2 8:08FLAMike SantorelliAssists: Steve Bernier, Dmitry Kulikov · Backhand, 0.29 xG1–3
- P3 1:20FLASteve BernierPPAssists: Stephen Weiss, Dennis Wideman · Deflected, 0.16 xG2–3
- P3 2:15ANACorey PerryGWGAssists: Ryan Getzlaf · Slap, 0.12 xG2–4
- P3 18:53FLASteve BernierPPAssists: Bryan McCabe, Mike Santorelli · Wrist, 0.45 xG3–4
- P3 19:29ANABobby RyanENUnassisted · Backhand, 0.68 xG3–5
Penalties (5)
- P1 6:09FLAMichael Frolik: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P1 14:05ANAGeorge Parros: Fighting5 min
- P1 14:05FLADarcy Hordichuk: Fighting5 min
- P2 19:45ANACam Fowler: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
- P3 17:55ANASaku Koivu: Slashing2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Koivu won the faceoff against Reasoner
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestBernier – Booth – Santorelli12:58
xG 1.14–0.32 (78%)attempts 18–7goals 1–0
- Dvorak – Reasoner – Higgins12:28
xG 0.55–0.34 (62%)attempts 14–6goals 0–1
- Reinprecht – Hordichuk – Repik4:07
xG 0.23–0.31 (43%)attempts 5–3goals 0–2
- Reinprecht – Booth – Repik3:36
xG 0.10–0.19 (36%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMcCabe – Kulikov15:57
xG 1.26–0.33 (79%)attempts 20–8goals 1–1
- Weaver – Garrison17:03
xG 0.56–0.81 (41%)attempts 14–15goals 0–2
- Wideman – Ellerby16:42
xG 0.39–0.69 (36%)attempts 16–14goals 0–0
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestGetzlaf – Perry – Ryan17:05
xG 1.07–0.18 (86%)attempts 23–9goals 1–0
- Marchant – Parros – Chipchura7:11
xG 0.44–0.32 (58%)attempts 4–8goals 2–0
- Bonino – McMillan – Sexton10:54
xG 0.30–0.34 (47%)attempts 7–8goals 0–0
- Selanne – Koivu – Blake14:16
xG 0.20–1.29 (14%)attempts 6–19goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestLydman – Visnovsky19:07
xG 0.92–0.33 (74%)attempts 20–12goals 1–0
- Sutton – Sbisa14:28
xG 0.58–0.76 (43%)attempts 12–17goals 1–0
- Mara – Fowler18:19
xG 0.44–1.23 (27%)attempts 6–22goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ANA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ANA is favoured, below it FLA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 54% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ANA − FLA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).