Thu, Dec 2, 2010·Air Canada Centre, Toronto
Edmonton Oilers 5, Toronto Maple Leafs 0
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 52% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EDM | 14 | 28 | 27 | 519 |
| TOR | 012 | 011 | 010 | 033 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:10EDMJordan EberleGWGAssists: Ryan Whitney · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–0
- P2 6:24EDMTaylor HallAssists: Jordan Eberle · Backhand, 0.03 xG2–0
- P2 19:57EDMSam GagnerAssists: Magnus Paajarvi, Ryan Jones · Snap, 0.51 xG3–0
- P3 16:55EDMTaylor HallAssists: Shawn Horcoff, Jordan Eberle · Snap, 0.16 xG4–0
- P3 17:29EDMRyan JonesAssists: Ryan Whitney, Jim Vandermeer · Backhand, 0.14 xG5–0
Penalties (11)
- P1 9:31EDMSteve MacIntyre: Fighting5 min
- P1 9:31TORColton Orr: Fighting5 min
- P1 10:09EDMTom Gilbert: Roughing2 min
- P1 13:50EDMRyan Whitney: Holding2 min
- P2 11:29EDMAndrew Cogliano: Tripping2 min
- P2 14:44TORLuke Schenn: Holding2 min
- P3 5:23EDMTheo Peckham: Tripping2 min
- P3 7:39TORJoey Crabb: Holding2 min
- P3 10:07EDMRyan Jones: High sticking2 min
- P3 11:41TORNazem Kadri: Hooking2 min
- P3 19:35TORMike Komisarek: Cross checking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Horcoff won the faceoff against Grabovski
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestJones – Gagner – Paajarvi9:52
xG 0.69–0.39 (64%)attempts 5–11goals 2–0
- Horcoff – Eberle – Hall13:12
xG 0.45–0.29 (60%)attempts 11–15goals 3–0
- Penner – Brule – Cogliano9:49
xG 0.10–0.15 (41%)attempts 5–7goals 0–0
- Fraser – Stortini – MacIntyre2:44
xG 0.02–0.11 (17%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGilbert – Peckham14:34
xG 0.53–0.36 (60%)attempts 11–13goals 0–0
- Foster – Smid10:37
xG 0.23–0.26 (47%)attempts 6–9goals 1–0
- Vandermeer – Whitney13:05
xG 0.28–0.36 (44%)attempts 8–18goals 3–0
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestSjostrom – Versteeg – Bozak4:48
xG 0.29–0.03 (92%)attempts 9–2goals 0–1
- MacArthur – Kessel – Kadri7:09
xG 0.20–0.17 (53%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Crabb – Grabovski – Kulemin5:26
xG 0.08–0.07 (54%)attempts 9–3goals 0–0
- Sjostrom – Crabb – Versteeg2:37
xG 0.03–0.03 (46%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestLebda – Gunnarsson6:30
xG 0.29–0.09 (75%)attempts 10–2goals 0–0
- Beauchemin – Komisarek10:41
xG 0.23–0.10 (71%)attempts 13–5goals 0–0
- Lebda – Schenn2:24
xG 0.05–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–0goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TOR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TOR is favoured, below it EDM. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 52% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TOR − EDM), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).