Thu, Dec 2, 2010·Prudential Center, Newark
Montréal Canadiens 5, New Jersey Devils 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 64% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTL | 214 | 310 | 08 | 532 |
| NJD | 011 | 011 | 16 | 128 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:11MTLBrian GiontaAssists: Roman Hamrlik, Tomas Plekanec · Wrist, 0.36 xG1–0
- P1 1:38MTLLars EllerGWGUnassisted · Wrap-around, 0.05 xG2–0
- P2 2:30MTLTom PyattAssists: Maxim Lapierre, Jeff Halpern · Wrist, 0.34 xG3–0
- P2 8:37MTLScott GomezPPAssists: Mathieu Darche, Yannick Weber · Snap, 0.56 xG4–0
- P2 9:57MTLBenoit PouliotAssists: Lars Eller, Roman Hamrlik · Snap, 0.05 xG5–0
- P3 8:18NJDJason ArnottAssists: Patrik Elias, Dainius Zubrus · Tip-in, 0.19 xG5–1
Penalties (6)
- P1 3:18MTLRoman Hamrlik: Hooking2 min
- P1 7:27NJDMatthew Corrente: Penalty shot tripping on breakaway0 min
- P2 7:38NJDMark Fayne: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 17:06MTLRoman Hamrlik: Tripping2 min
- P2 17:06MTLLars Eller: Tripping2 min
- P3 10:39NJDColin White: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Plekanec won the faceoff against Zajac
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestHalpern – Lapierre – Pyatt10:43
xG 0.70–0.18 (79%)attempts 8–5goals 1–0
- Gionta – Plekanec – Kostitsyn13:09
xG 0.66–0.44 (60%)attempts 13–13goals 1–0
- Darche – Pouliot – Eller10:54
xG 0.23–0.12 (66%)attempts 5–8goals 1–0
- Gomez – Moen – Cammalleri12:06
xG 0.28–1.01 (22%)attempts 8–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHamrlik – Spacek17:50
xG 0.83–0.48 (63%)attempts 15–15goals 2–1
- Hamrlik – Weber2:09
xG 0.12–0.05 (70%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Picard – Weber12:21
xG 0.39–0.42 (48%)attempts 10–6goals 0–0
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestElias – Mair – Kovalchuk2:49
xG 0.35–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Arnott – Elias – Tedenby4:36
xG 0.50–0.22 (69%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Arnott – Zubrus – Gionta2:36
xG 0.01–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–0goals 0–0
- Mair – Pelley – Gionta5:25
xG 0.12–0.12 (49%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestWhite – Corrente2:50
xG 0.20–0.02 (91%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Tallinder – Corrente2:19
xG 0.12–0.00 (100%)attempts 7–0goals 0–0
- White – Tallinder15:27
xG 0.97–1.01 (49%)attempts 11–15goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NJD's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NJD is favoured, below it MTL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 64% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NJD − MTL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).