Thu, Dec 2, 2010·Scotiabank Place, Ottawa
San Jose Sharks 4, Ottawa Senators 0
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 78% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SJS | 111 | 110 | 212 | 433 |
| OTT | 013 | 09 | 06 | 028 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 12:49SJSPatrick MarleauPPGWGAssists: Dan Boyle, Joe Thornton · Wrist, 0.22 xG1–0
- P2 8:22SJSJustin BraunPPAssists: Dany Heatley · Tip-in, 0.03 xG2–0
- P3 0:35SJSLogan CoutureAssists: Benn Ferriero, Ryane Clowe · Wrist, 0.19 xG3–0
- P3 6:14SJSLogan CoutureAssists: Ryane Clowe · Backhand, 0.23 xG4–0
Penalties (7)
- P1 8:28SJSMike Moore: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P1 11:53OTTSergei Gonchar: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P1 18:42SJSDan Boyle: Interference2 min
- P2 4:45SJSDany Heatley: High sticking2 min
- P2 7:01OTTNick Foligno: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 4:23SJSDan Boyle: Roughing2 min
- P3 4:23OTTChris Neil: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Fisher won the faceoff against Couture
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestPavelski – Mitchell – McGinn10:48
xG 1.02–0.01 (99%)attempts 17–3goals 0–0
- Clowe – Ferriero – Couture12:09
xG 0.80–0.47 (63%)attempts 17–8goals 1–0
- Thornton – Marleau – Heatley11:24
xG 0.19–0.18 (51%)attempts 10–10goals 0–0
- Mayers – Nichol – McCarthy8:55
xG 0.17–0.54 (24%)attempts 6–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMurray – Braun8:25
xG 0.95–0.25 (79%)attempts 14–4goals 1–0
- Boyle – Vlasic9:34
xG 0.70–0.13 (84%)attempts 17–5goals 0–0
- Vlasic – Joslin6:30
xG 0.66–0.16 (80%)attempts 12–4goals 0–0
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestNeil – Kelly – Foligno11:32
xG 0.85–0.40 (68%)attempts 15–9goals 0–0
- Ruutu – Shannon – Winchester6:11
xG 0.04–0.05 (45%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Alfredsson – Spezza – Regin11:23
xG 0.21–0.32 (40%)attempts 12–12goals 0–0
- Kovalev – Fisher – Michalek10:54
xG 0.21–0.80 (20%)attempts 3–14goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestGonchar – Phillips12:45
xG 0.29–0.11 (72%)attempts 11–8goals 0–0
- Carkner – Campoli11:17
xG 0.50–0.38 (57%)attempts 11–10goals 0–0
- Gonchar – Karlsson4:42
xG 0.03–0.04 (39%)attempts 1–6goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
OTT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line OTT is favoured, below it SJS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 78% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (OTT − SJS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).