Thu, Dec 2, 2010·STAPLES Center, Los Angeles
Florida Panthers 2, Los Angeles Kings 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 70% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA | 110 | 17 | 09 | 226 |
| LAK | 17 | 07 | 210 | 324 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 10:24LAKJarret StollAssists: Justin Williams, Ryan Smyth · Wrist, 0.06 xG0–1
- P1 13:51FLAMichal RepikAssists: Keaton Ellerby, Bill Thomas · Tip-in, 0.15 xG1–1
- P2 15:51FLADavid BoothAssists: Steve Reinprecht, Steve Bernier · Wrist, 0.04 xG2–1
- P3 2:36LAKPeter HarroldAssists: Kyle Clifford, Brad Richardson · Snap, 0.05 xG2–2
- P3 17:17LAKAnze KopitarGWGAssists: Dustin Brown · Wrist, 0.31 xG2–3
Penalties (5)
- P1 3:16FLAStephen Weiss: Holding2 min
- P1 8:05LAKRyan Smyth: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 10:30FLAStephen Weiss: Tripping2 min
- P2 19:08LAKRyan Smyth: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P3 12:36LAKDrew Doughty: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Weiss won the faceoff against Stoll
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestHordichuk – Thomas – Repik3:29
xG 0.26–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–0goals 1–0
- Dvorak – Reasoner – Reinprecht10:20
xG 0.30–0.26 (54%)attempts 6–8goals 0–0
- Weiss – Bernier – Booth11:49
xG 0.30–0.39 (43%)attempts 8–13goals 0–0
- Santorelli – Frolik – Matthias10:42
xG 0.12–0.54 (18%)attempts 4–12goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestWideman – Ellerby13:21
xG 0.53–0.41 (57%)attempts 12–14goals 1–0
- McCabe – Kulikov12:35
xG 0.30–0.23 (57%)attempts 6–12goals 1–1
- McCabe – Wideman2:42
xG 0.00–0.18 (0%)attempts 0–4goals 0–0
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- bestWilliams – Brown – Kopitar10:11
xG 0.37–0.12 (75%)attempts 14–5goals 0–0
- Smyth – Williams – Stoll5:39
xG 0.32–0.11 (73%)attempts 8–3goals 1–0
- Handzus – Simmonds – Clifford6:48
xG 0.06–0.15 (28%)attempts 3–5goals 0–1
- Brown – Kopitar – Simmonds4:20
xG 0.05–0.16 (24%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestScuderi – Doughty16:33
xG 0.81–0.35 (70%)attempts 24–8goals 1–0
- Greene – Johnson7:34
xG 0.43–0.15 (74%)attempts 7–5goals 1–1
- Johnson – Doughty2:26
xG 0.01–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
LAK's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line LAK is favoured, below it FLA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 70% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (LAK − FLA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).