Skip to content
Ice Lab

Fri, Dec 3, 2010·HSBC Arena, Buffalo

Columbus Blue Jackets 0, Buffalo Sabres 5

Away

Columbus Blue Jackets

0

Final

Home

Buffalo Sabres

5

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 89% of the time.

BUF winsCBJ wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
CBJ050707019
BUF21411528537

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 5:58BUFJochen HechtGWGAssists: Tyler Ennis, Mike Grier · Wrist, 0.22 xG0–1
  2. P1 14:54BUFJason PominvillePPAssists: Drew Stafford, Thomas Vanek · Wrist, 0.43 xG0–2
  3. P2 12:01BUFDrew StaffordPPAssists: Derek Roy, Thomas Vanek · Slap, 0.08 xG0–3
  4. P3 15:31BUFTyler EnnisAssists: Shaone Morrisonn · Wrist, 0.12 xG0–4
  5. P3 19:13BUFThomas VanekPPAssists: Tyler Ennis, Derek Roy · Wrist, 0.35 xG0–5
Penalties (28)
  1. P1 11:48CBJKris Russell: Interference2 min
  2. P1 14:25CBJDerek Dorsett: Slashing2 min · PPG
  3. P1 15:41BUFJochen Hecht: Hooking2 min
  4. P1 18:26BUFDerek Roy: Tripping2 min
  5. P2 11:08CBJEthan Moreau: Interference goalkeeper2 min · PPG
  6. P2 19:15CBJMike Commodore: Boarding5 min
  7. P2 19:15CBJChris Clark: Roughing2 min
  8. P2 19:15BUFJordan Leopold: Roughing2 min
  9. P2 19:15BUFSteve Montador: Roughing2 min
  10. P3 0:09BUFMike Weber: Interference2 min
  11. P3 0:09BUFMike Weber: Roughing2 min
  12. P3 0:09CBJDerek MacKenzie: Roughing2 min
  13. P3 4:36BUFCody McCormick: Instigator2 min
  14. P3 4:36BUFCody McCormick: Fighting5 min
  15. P3 4:36BUFCody McCormick: Misconduct10 min
  16. P3 4:36CBJMike Commodore: Fighting5 min
  17. P3 7:48CBJJared Boll: Charging2 min
  18. P3 7:48CBJJared Boll: Fighting5 min
  19. P3 7:48BUFSteve Montador: Instigator2 min
  20. P3 7:48BUFSteve Montador: Fighting5 min
  21. P3 7:48BUFSteve Montador: Misconduct10 min
  22. P3 8:57BUFPatrick Kaleta: Roughing2 min
  23. P3 8:57BUFPatrick Kaleta: Fighting5 min
  24. P3 8:57BUFPatrick Kaleta: Misconduct10 min
  25. P3 8:57CBJDerek Dorsett: Fighting5 min
  26. P3 17:13CBJJared Boll: Illegal check to head5 min · PPG
  27. P3 17:13CBJJared Boll: Game misconduct10 min
  28. P3 17:58CBJKyle Wilson: Slashing2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

CBJ00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0BUF
47% to win53% to win
← CBJ attackBUF attack →
  1. P1 20:00Roy won the faceoff against Vermette
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

CBJBUF
19Shots on goal37
1.4Expected goals4.1
46Shot attempts58
27Faceoffs won33
6Power plays6
49Penalty minutes63
20Hits13
14Blocked shots15
3Giveaways6
4Takeaways6

Line combinations that worked

Model-based

Each team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.

Columbus Blue Jackets

Forward lines

  1. Moreau – Pahlsson – Dorsett7:46

    xG 0.11–0.09 (55%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0

  2. MacKenzie – Wilson – Boll6:31

    xG 0.05–0.25 (18%)attempts 5–7goals 0–0

  3. Vermette – Umberger – Nash9:58

    xG 0.22–0.54 (29%)attempts 13–10goals 0–0

  4. Clark – Brassard – Voracek9:17

    xG 0.21–1.04 (17%)attempts 9–9goals 0–1

Defence pairs

  1. Commodore – Russell12:59

    xG 0.22–0.44 (33%)attempts 14–9goals 0–1

  2. Klesla – Tyutin10:58

    xG 0.19–0.42 (32%)attempts 11–14goals 0–0

  3. Hejda – Stralman11:39

    xG 0.20–1.22 (14%)attempts 5–14goals 0–1

Buffalo Sabres

Forward lines

  1. bestHecht – Kaleta – Ennis6:54

    xG 0.87–0.22 (80%)attempts 7–9goals 1–0

  2. Grier – Gaustad – McCormick6:45

    xG 0.54–0.03 (95%)attempts 9–5goals 0–0

  3. Pominville – Stafford – Adam7:54

    xG 0.32–0.04 (88%)attempts 10–4goals 0–0

  4. Roy – Vanek – Gerbe9:33

    xG 0.07–0.26 (22%)attempts 7–11goals 0–0

Defence pairs

  1. bestMorrisonn – Weber10:39

    xG 1.20–0.05 (96%)attempts 14–7goals 2–0

  2. Sekera – Myers13:31

    xG 0.54–0.21 (72%)attempts 13–9goals 0–0

  3. Leopold – Montador9:54

    xG 0.26–0.31 (45%)attempts 8–14goals 0–0

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

BUF 4.1 xGCBJ 1.4 xG
01234P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

BUFCBJ

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

BUF's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BUF is favoured, below it CBJ. Dots are goals.

Excitement 3/100 · #1183 of 1230 this seasonSwing 0.56 · 3 goals in reachComeback index 52% (winner's lowest chance)
CBJ 100%5050%50BUF 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +14 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 89% of the time.

BUF winsCBJ wins

Simulated goal difference (BUF − CBJ), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).