Fri, Dec 3, 2010·Xcel Energy Center, St. Paul
Calgary Flames 3, Minnesota Wild 2 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 75% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY | 010 | 18 | 19 | 05 | 2 | 332 |
| MIN | 011 | 16 | 14 | 01 | 1 | 222 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 12:43MINPierre-Marc BouchardAssists: Nick Schultz, Martin Havlat · Backhand, 0.07 xG0–1
- P2 19:27CGYMark GiordanoAssists: Niklas Hagman, Olli Jokinen · Wrist, 0.19 xG1–1
- P3 4:39CGYAlex TanguayAssists: Matt Stajan, Jarome Iginla · Wrist, 0.14 xG2–1
- P3 12:39MINMartin HavlatAssists: Kyle Brodziak, Brent Burns · Backhand, 0.12 xG2–2
Shootout
- 1. MIN Mikko Koivu stopped
- 2. CGY Alex Tanguay scored
- 3. MIN Pierre-Marc Bouchard stopped
- 4. CGY Niklas Hagman stopped
- 5. MIN Patrick O'Sullivan scored
- 6. CGY Rene Bourque scored
Penalties (8)
- P1 9:39CGYMark Giordano: Hooking2 min
- P1 12:25MINEric Nystrom: Interference2 min
- P1 15:37MINMikko Koivu: Tripping2 min
- P1 16:47MINAntti Miettinen: Tripping2 min
- P1 18:58CGYAnton Babchuk: Interference2 min
- P2 4:26CGYDavid Moss: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 18:36MINKyle Brodziak: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 18:55CGYRene Bourque: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Koivu won the faceoff against Stajan
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestMorrison – Moss – Glencross5:16
xG 0.35–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–0goals 0–0
- Jokinen – Hagman – Backlund4:32
xG 0.34–0.15 (69%)attempts 3–7goals 0–0
- Iginla – Tanguay – Stajan12:23
xG 0.34–0.27 (55%)attempts 8–10goals 1–1
- Morrison – Kostopoulos – Jackman2:43
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 1–0goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBabchuk – Giordano10:04
xG 0.55–0.09 (86%)attempts 11–3goals 0–0
- Staios – Bouwmeester12:44
xG 0.47–0.32 (59%)attempts 14–11goals 0–0
- Sarich – Regehr8:32
xG 0.12–0.03 (79%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- Cullen – O'Sullivan – Clutterbuck7:42
xG 0.35–0.34 (51%)attempts 6–7goals 0–0
- Madden – Havlat – Nystrom2:20
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–0goals 0–0
- Havlat – Bouchard – Brodziak7:53
xG 0.23–0.23 (50%)attempts 8–5goals 1–0
- Madden – Nystrom – Staubitz4:24
xG 0.00–0.01 (0%)attempts 0–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSchultz – Burns12:07
xG 0.37–0.11 (78%)attempts 11–7goals 2–0
- Burns – Barker3:04
xG 0.00–0.02 (0%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Barker – Spurgeon8:51
xG 0.17–0.25 (40%)attempts 5–6goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MIN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MIN is favoured, below it CGY. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 75% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MIN − CGY), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).