Sat, Dec 4, 2010·Scotiabank Place, Ottawa
Buffalo Sabres 1, Ottawa Senators 0 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 51% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 010 | 010 | 06 | 05 | 1 | 131 |
| OTT | 011 | 08 | 010 | 03 | 0 | 032 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- No goals in regulation or overtime.
Shootout
- 1. OTT Alex Kovalev stopped
- 2. BUF Jason Pominville stopped
- 3. OTT Daniel Alfredsson stopped
- 4. BUF Thomas Vanek scored
- 5. OTT Jason Spezza stopped
Penalties (7)
- P1 3:36BUFNathan Gerbe: Holding the stick2 min
- P1 5:45OTTMatt Carkner: Roughing2 min
- P1 5:45BUFMike Weber: Roughing2 min
- P1 16:06OTTMatt Carkner: Interference2 min
- P1 0:00BUFTyler Ennis: Hooking2 min
- P1 0:00OTTJason Spezza: Cross checking2 min
- P2 3:53OTTFilip Kuba: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Spezza won the faceoff against Roy
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestRoy – Vanek – Gerbe14:32
xG 0.86–0.33 (72%)attempts 18–14goals 0–0
- Grier – Gaustad – Ennis2:41
xG 0.12–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Grier – Gaustad – McCormick2:46
xG 0.05–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Pominville – McCormick – Adam6:44
xG 0.16–0.38 (29%)attempts 4–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSekera – Myers14:27
xG 0.54–0.21 (72%)attempts 18–12goals 0–0
- Leopold – Montador16:09
xG 0.61–0.40 (61%)attempts 9–18goals 0–0
- Butler – Weber6:47
xG 0.15–0.07 (68%)attempts 4–6goals 0–0
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestNeil – Foligno – Winchester3:54
xG 0.29–0.10 (75%)attempts 6–1goals 0–0
- Alfredsson – Spezza – Regin12:15
xG 0.31–0.15 (68%)attempts 15–7goals 0–0
- Ruutu – Shannon – Winchester4:56
xG 0.05–0.03 (59%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- Kovalev – Fisher – Michalek10:36
xG 0.37–0.45 (45%)attempts 11–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Kuba – Karlsson12:26
xG 0.45–0.44 (51%)attempts 14–13goals 0–0
- Gonchar – Phillips15:34
xG 0.39–0.40 (49%)attempts 19–15goals 0–0
- Campoli – Karlsson2:00
xG 0.01–0.03 (29%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
OTT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line OTT is favoured, below it BUF. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 51% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (OTT − BUF), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).