Sat, Dec 4, 2010·Nationwide Arena, Columbus
Pittsburgh Penguins 7, Columbus Blue Jackets 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 77% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | 416 | 313 | 06 | 735 |
| CBJ | 02 | 115 | 16 | 223 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:43PITPaul MartinPPUnassisted · Wrist, 0.02 xG1–0
- P1 8:59PITMike RuppAssists: Eric Godard, Craig Adams · Wrist, 0.03 xG2–0
- P1 12:55PITPaul MartinPPGWGUnassisted · Wrist, 0.19 xG3–0
- P1 15:49PITSidney CrosbyPPAssists: Mark Letestu, Kris Letang · Tip-in, 0.13 xG4–0
- P2 3:09PITTyler KennedyAssists: Mark Letestu, Chris Conner · Tip-in, 0.11 xG5–0
- P2 6:21CBJSamuel PahlssonAssists: Rostislav Klesla, Ethan Moreau · Deflected, 0.02 xG5–1
- P2 9:55PITSidney CrosbyAssists: Chris Kunitz, Kris Letang · Wrist, 0.07 xG6–1
- P2 18:19PITDeryk EngellandUnassisted · Slap, 0.02 xG7–1
- P3 1:05CBJChris ClarkPPAssists: Fedor Tyutin, Ethan Moreau · Wrist, 0.05 xG7–2
Penalties (13)
- P1 5:25CBJChris Clark: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P1 9:25PITBrooks Orpik: Tripping2 min
- P1 11:53CBJMarc Methot: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P1 14:55CBJEthan Moreau: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P1 16:52PITMatt Cooke: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P1 16:52PITMatt Cooke: Holding2 min
- P2 8:39CBJJared Boll: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P2 8:39PITMike Rupp: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P2 10:43CBJJared Boll: Fighting5 min
- P2 10:43PITMike Rupp: Fighting5 min
- P2 19:36PITCraig Adams: Holding2 min · PPG
- P3 8:55PITDeryk Engelland: Elbowing2 min
- P3 13:02CBJMike Commodore: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Letestu won the faceoff against Brassard
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestDupuis – Kunitz – Crosby10:38
xG 0.44–0.14 (75%)attempts 18–4goals 0–0
- Kennedy – Conner – Letestu7:19
xG 0.35–0.10 (77%)attempts 7–4goals 1–1
- Asham – Cooke – Talbot10:29
xG 0.27–0.18 (60%)attempts 5–11goals 1–0
- Adams – Rupp – Godard7:34
xG 0.18–0.13 (58%)attempts 6–3goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestOrpik – Letang11:58
xG 0.50–0.08 (86%)attempts 15–3goals 0–0
- Engelland – Goligoski15:31
xG 0.61–0.30 (67%)attempts 14–14goals 3–0
- Martin – Michalek7:41
xG 0.35–0.22 (61%)attempts 7–5goals 0–1
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- MacKenzie – Boll – Dorsett5:44
xG 0.13–0.15 (46%)attempts 3–6goals 0–2
- Moreau – Clark – Pahlsson8:02
xG 0.17–0.27 (38%)attempts 6–12goals 1–0
- Vermette – Umberger – Filatov9:17
xG 0.22–0.47 (32%)attempts 9–7goals 0–0
- Nash – Brassard – Voracek10:39
xG 0.07–0.35 (17%)attempts 6–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Klesla – Methot14:26
xG 0.20–0.36 (36%)attempts 9–15goals 1–0
- Tyutin – Hejda13:51
xG 0.13–0.29 (31%)attempts 7–7goals 0–1
- Commodore – Russell11:47
xG 0.22–0.70 (24%)attempts 7–15goals 0–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CBJ's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CBJ is favoured, below it PIT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 77% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CBJ − PIT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).