Sat, Dec 4, 2010·American Airlines Center, Dallas
Minnesota Wild 3, Dallas Stars 4 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 52% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 07 | 115 | 29 | 00 | 331 |
| DAL | 17 | 19 | 113 | 14 | 433 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:42DALKarlis SkrastinsAssists: Steve Ott, Brandon Segal · Wrist, 0.02 xG0–1
- P2 11:45DALSteve OttPPAssists: James Neal, Kari Lehtonen · Wrist, 0.05 xG0–2
- P2 17:34MINAntti MiettinenAssists: Mikko Koivu · Wrist, 0.21 xG1–2
- P3 1:41MINChuck KobasewAssists: Cal Clutterbuck, Matt Cullen · Snap, 0.52 xG2–2
- P3 5:57DALAdam BurishAssists: Trevor Daley, Brandon Segal · Backhand, 0.13 xG2–3
- P3 16:51MINMartin HavlatAssists: Marek Zidlicky, Pierre-Marc Bouchard · Wrist, 0.10 xG3–3
- OT 3:37DALStephane RobidasPPGWGAssists: Mike Ribeiro, Brad Richards · Snap, 0.11 xG3–4
Penalties (11)
- P1 1:35MINNick Schultz: Tripping2 min
- P1 9:30DALSteve Ott: Roughing2 min
- P1 9:30MINMartin Havlat: Slashing2 min
- P1 11:37DALMatt Niskanen: Holding2 min
- P1 13:55MINAntti Miettinen: Hooking2 min
- P1 18:21DALBrandon Segal: Interference2 min
- P2 0:27MINAntti Miettinen: Interference2 min
- P2 6:25DALKarlis Skrastins: Delaying game2 min
- P2 7:02MINMartin Havlat: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P2 9:54MINMikko Koivu: High sticking2 min · PPG
- OT 2:36MINBrent Burns: Tripping2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Richards won the faceoff against Madden
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestCullen – Kobasew – Clutterbuck7:52
xG 1.07–0.17 (86%)attempts 12–5goals 1–0
- Brunette – Miettinen – Koivu12:55
xG 0.93–0.17 (85%)attempts 13–7goals 1–0
- Havlat – Bouchard – Brodziak10:46
xG 0.46–0.09 (83%)attempts 16–5goals 1–0
- Madden – Nystrom – Staubitz3:31
xG 0.04–0.13 (26%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestZanon – Zidlicky14:09
xG 1.01–0.20 (83%)attempts 25–9goals 2–0
- Barker – Spurgeon10:01
xG 0.91–0.33 (74%)attempts 5–8goals 1–0
- Schultz – Burns12:39
xG 0.41–0.16 (72%)attempts 18–8goals 0–0
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestSutherby – Eriksson – Wandell2:46
xG 0.18–0.03 (88%)attempts 6–1goals 0–0
- Ott – Segal – Burish7:54
xG 0.29–0.37 (44%)attempts 7–13goals 2–1
- Richards – Eriksson – Neal11:49
xG 0.22–0.60 (27%)attempts 7–13goals 0–1
- Morrow – Ribeiro – Benn10:57
xG 0.25–1.07 (19%)attempts 13–11goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestWoywitka – Daley10:01
xG 0.37–0.09 (80%)attempts 9–8goals 1–0
- Robidas – Grossmann14:40
xG 0.30–0.99 (23%)attempts 11–15goals 0–1
- Skrastins – Niskanen9:43
xG 0.37–1.18 (24%)attempts 12–17goals 1–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DAL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DAL is favoured, below it MIN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 52% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DAL − MIN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).