Sat, Dec 4, 2010·Rexall Place, Edmonton
St. Louis Blues 1, Edmonton Oilers 2 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 64% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL | 09 | 015 | 18 | 00 | 132 |
| EDM | 07 | 09 | 19 | 11 | 226 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P3 2:32EDMRyan JonesAssists: Magnus Paajarvi, Sam Gagner · Tip-in, 0.22 xG0–1
- P3 13:33STLEric BrewerAssists: Erik Johnson, B.J. Crombeen · Slap, 0.05 xG1–1
- OT 0:23EDMTaylor HallGWGAssists: Ryan Whitney · Snap, 0.14 xG1–2
Penalties (6)
- P1 3:15STLStefan Della Rovere: Fighting5 min
- P1 3:15EDMColin Fraser: Fighting5 min
- P1 8:27STLIan Cole: Holding2 min
- P1 8:27EDMMagnus Paajarvi: Holding the stick2 min
- P2 8:48EDMDustin Penner: Boarding2 min
- P2 18:14STLDave Scatchard: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Horcoff won the faceoff against McDonald
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestMcDonald – Boyes – Steen9:10
xG 0.90–0.19 (82%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
- McClement – Steen – Crombeen5:08
xG 0.23–0.07 (78%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- McClement – Crombeen – D'Agostini2:25
xG 0.11–0.13 (46%)attempts 4–2goals 1–0
- Winchester – McClement – Crombeen2:43
xG 0.05–0.08 (39%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBrewer – Cole17:41
xG 0.90–0.57 (61%)attempts 16–10goals 0–0
- Brewer – Johnson3:24
xG 0.28–0.16 (64%)attempts 4–3goals 1–0
- Jackman – Pietrangelo16:06
xG 0.53–0.58 (48%)attempts 14–8goals 0–0
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestHorcoff – Eberle – Hall15:01
xG 0.91–0.64 (59%)attempts 14–14goals 0–1
- Jacques – Fraser – Stortini4:10
xG 0.11–0.03 (78%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Jones – Gagner – Paajarvi10:47
xG 0.56–0.49 (53%)attempts 5–11goals 1–0
- Penner – Brule – Cogliano14:51
xG 0.36–0.71 (34%)attempts 6–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestFoster – Smid10:04
xG 0.50–0.23 (68%)attempts 7–9goals 1–0
- Gilbert – Peckham16:00
xG 0.71–0.68 (51%)attempts 10–13goals 0–1
- Gilbert – Smid2:22
xG 0.01–0.05 (22%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
EDM's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line EDM is favoured, below it STL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 64% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (EDM − STL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).