Mon, Dec 6, 2010·Verizon Center, Washington
Toronto Maple Leafs 5, Washington Capitals 4 (SO)
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 57% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 17 | 011 | 38 | 02 | 1 | 528 |
| WSH | 212 | 29 | 012 | 03 | 0 | 436 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:55WSHMathieu PerreaultAssists: Tom Poti, Alexander Semin · Tip-in, 0.08 xG0–1
- P1 11:47TORClarke MacArthurPPAssists: Nikolay Kulemin · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–1
- P1 14:58WSHMike KnublePPAssists: Nicklas Backstrom, Tom Poti · Wrist, 0.20 xG1–2
- P2 6:46WSHMathieu PerreaultAssists: Brooks Laich · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–3
- P2 13:50WSHAlex OvechkinAssists: Tom Poti, Nicklas Backstrom · Snap, 0.03 xG1–4
- P3 4:16TORMikhail GrabovskiAssists: Tomas Kaberle, Nikolay Kulemin · Slap, 0.06 xG2–4
- P3 17:37TORTim BrentAssists: Tomas Kaberle, Nazem Kadri · Tip-in, 0.09 xG3–4
- P3 18:36TORClarke MacArthurAssists: Mikhail Grabovski, Phil Kessel · Wrist, 0.19 xG4–4
Shootout
- 1. TOR Nazem Kadri stopped
- 2. WSH Alex Ovechkin stopped
- 3. TOR Mikhail Grabovski scored
- 4. WSH Mathieu Perreault stopped
- 5. TOR Phil Kessel stopped
- 6. WSH Alexander Semin stopped
Penalties (9)
- P1 4:54WSHMatt Bradley: High sticking2 min
- P1 5:50TORColby Armstrong: High sticking2 min
- P1 9:57WSHNicklas Backstrom: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P1 12:09TORFredrik Sjostrom: Interference2 min
- P1 13:54TORFrancois Beauchemin: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P2 12:25WSHDJ King: Fighting5 min
- P2 12:25TORColton Orr: Fighting5 min
- P2 14:06WSHAlexander Semin: Tripping2 min
- P3 10:56WSHMike Green: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Johansson won the faceoff against Kessel
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestMacArthur – Grabovski – Kulemin11:25
xG 0.71–0.24 (75%)attempts 14–7goals 1–0
- Armstrong – Versteeg – Kessel9:22
xG 0.64–0.45 (59%)attempts 7–9goals 0–2
- Rosehill – Bozak – Kadri2:36
xG 0.18–0.11 (62%)attempts 2–3goals 0–1
- Sjostrom – Bozak – Kadri2:32
xG 0.00–0.07 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKaberle – Schenn15:38
xG 0.90–0.54 (62%)attempts 15–13goals 1–0
- Kaberle – Beauchemin2:45
xG 0.14–0.06 (72%)attempts 3–1goals 1–0
- Komisarek – Gunnarsson5:43
xG 0.11–0.13 (46%)attempts 3–4goals 0–2
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestHendricks – King – Johansson3:10
xG 0.54–0.04 (94%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Laich – Semin – Perreault9:14
xG 0.67–0.20 (77%)attempts 14–5goals 2–0
- Bradley – Chimera – Gordon7:00
xG 0.08–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Hendricks – Gordon – King2:40
xG 0.04–0.15 (19%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestAlzner – Carlson10:15
xG 1.18–0.53 (69%)attempts 17–8goals 1–2
- Poti – Hannan11:09
xG 0.46–0.10 (82%)attempts 9–6goals 1–0
- Hannan – Green4:32
xG 0.06–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WSH is favoured, below it TOR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 57% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WSH − TOR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).