Mon, Dec 6, 2010·Philips Arena, Atlanta
Nashville Predators 2, Atlanta Thrashers 3 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Atlanta Thrashers win this game 56% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NSH | 212 | 07 | 09 | 01 | 229 |
| ATL | 07 | 114 | 114 | 12 | 337 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 8:39NSHColin WilsonAssists: Sergei Kostitsyn, Kevin Klein · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–0
- P1 11:09NSHSteve SullivanAssists: Colin Wilson, Cal O'Reilly · Tip-in, 0.17 xG2–0
- P2 14:25ATLJim SlaterAssists: Toby Enstrom · Slap, 0.01 xG2–1
- P3 6:49ATLAndrew LaddPPAssists: Dustin Byfuglien, Bryan Little · Backhand, 0.28 xG2–2
- OT 2:11ATLZach BogosianGWGAssists: Ben Eager, Alexander Burmistrov · Snap, 0.09 xG2–3
Penalties (5)
- P1 15:11ATLAnthony Stewart: Holding2 min
- P2 2:39NSHPatric Hornqvist: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P2 4:34NSHJerred Smithson: Interference2 min
- P2 16:38NSHCody Franson: Slashing2 min
- P3 6:44NSHShea Weber: Boarding2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Slater won the faceoff against Smithson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestSullivan – O'Reilly – Wilson11:54
xG 0.79–0.45 (64%)attempts 13–12goals 1–0
- Dumont – Hornqvist – Spaling7:57
xG 0.33–0.04 (89%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
- Smithson – Ward – Tootoo8:00
xG 0.07–0.09 (43%)attempts 6–8goals 0–1
- Smithson – Ward – Spaling3:28
xG 0.00–0.21 (0%)attempts 0–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSuter – Weber15:25
xG 0.85–0.19 (82%)attempts 16–8goals 0–1
- Suter – Franson2:32
xG 0.05–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Suter – O'Brien3:09
xG 0.07–0.11 (38%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
Atlanta Thrashers
Forward lines
- bestLadd – Peverley – Bergfors10:56
xG 0.42–0.21 (66%)attempts 11–5goals 0–1
- Stewart – Little – Kane11:24
xG 0.61–0.57 (52%)attempts 14–8goals 0–0
- Boulton – Thorburn – Slater8:04
xG 0.03–0.04 (39%)attempts 3–6goals 1–0
- Antropov – Eager – Burmistrov11:28
xG 0.39–0.54 (42%)attempts 12–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestEnstrom – Byfuglien18:22
xG 0.87–0.48 (65%)attempts 19–18goals 1–0
- Sopel – Hainsey12:13
xG 0.31–0.07 (81%)attempts 12–8goals 0–0
- Oduya – Bogosian15:35
xG 0.33–0.70 (32%)attempts 12–9goals 0–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ATL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ATL is favoured, below it NSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Atlanta Thrashers win this game 56% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ATL − NSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).