Tue, Dec 7, 2010·TD Garden, Boston
Buffalo Sabres 2, Boston Bruins 3 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 64% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 08 | 17 | 114 | 01 | 230 |
| BOS | 111 | 07 | 113 | 15 | 336 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 13:21BOSMilan LucicAssists: David Krejci, Nathan Horton · Wrap-around, 0.04 xG0–1
- P2 12:57BUFLuke AdamAssists: Jason Pominville, Mark Mancari · Snap, 0.44 xG1–1
- P3 4:07BUFThomas VanekAssists: Tyler Myers, Jordan Leopold · Snap, 0.15 xG2–1
- P3 13:39BOSNathan HortonUnassisted · Wrist, 0.13 xG2–2
- OT 2:11BOSMark RecchiPPGWGAssists: Dennis Seidenberg, David Krejci · Tip-in, 0.29 xG2–3
Penalties (7)
- P1 14:04BUFSteve Montador: Roughing2 min
- P1 14:04BUFSteve Montador: Fighting5 min
- P1 14:04BOSJohnny Boychuk: Fighting5 min
- P2 5:58BOSTyler Seguin: High sticking2 min
- P2 15:32BUFDerek Roy: Hooking2 min
- P3 15:28BUFSteve Montador: High sticking2 min
- OT 1:46BUFLuke Adam: High sticking double minor4 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Roy won the faceoff against Krejci
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestPominville – Mancari – Adam9:17
xG 1.50–0.28 (84%)attempts 12–8goals 1–0
- Hecht – Kaleta – Ennis10:56
xG 0.72–0.32 (69%)attempts 10–10goals 0–0
- Roy – Vanek – Gerbe13:40
xG 0.66–0.26 (71%)attempts 14–9goals 1–1
- Grier – Gaustad – McCormick9:26
xG 0.15–0.31 (32%)attempts 6–9goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestSekera – Myers13:30
xG 1.69–0.41 (81%)attempts 17–12goals 2–0
- Leopold – Montador17:00
xG 0.82–0.49 (63%)attempts 18–19goals 0–0
- Butler – Weber13:13
xG 0.64–0.34 (66%)attempts 10–11goals 0–2
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- Thornton – Campbell – Marchand10:16
xG 0.10–0.16 (38%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
- Recchi – Bergeron – Wheeler12:16
xG 0.28–0.71 (29%)attempts 13–8goals 0–0
- Savard – Ryder – Seguin9:57
xG 0.12–0.68 (15%)attempts 5–12goals 0–0
- Horton – Krejci – Lucic11:28
xG 0.48–1.56 (24%)attempts 9–18goals 1–2
Defence pairs
- Stuart – McQuaid3:12
xG 0.03–0.09 (22%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
- Seidenberg – Boychuk14:10
xG 0.45–0.62 (42%)attempts 9–13goals 1–1
- Chara – Ference16:42
xG 0.52–0.73 (41%)attempts 15–15goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BOS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BOS is favoured, below it BUF. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 64% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BOS − BUF), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).