Tue, Dec 7, 2010·Centre Bell, Montreal
Ottawa Senators 1, Montréal Canadiens 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 74% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT | 16 | 013 | 09 | 128 |
| MTL | 113 | 09 | 313 | 435 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 9:09MTLMichael CammalleriPPUnassisted · Wrist, 0.26 xG0–1
- P1 19:51OTTNick FolignoPPAssists: Jason Spezza, Erik Karlsson · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–1
- P3 2:18MTLJeff HalpernGWGAssists: Maxim Lapierre · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–2
- P3 10:01MTLBrian GiontaUnassisted · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–3
- P3 16:28MTLRoman HamrlikAssists: Brian Gionta, Lars Eller · Tip-in, 0.22 xG1–4
Penalties (11)
- P1 8:43OTTMatt Carkner: Holding2 min · PPG
- P1 19:30MTLJosh Gorges: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 8:46OTTChris Kelly: Boarding5 min
- P2 17:38OTTMike Fisher: High sticking double minor4 min
- P2 19:37MTLAlexandre Picard: Tripping2 min
- P3 11:29OTTMatt Carkner: Interference2 min
- P3 15:38MTLTomas Plekanec: Roughing2 min
- P3 15:38OTTChris Campoli: Roughing2 min
- P3 18:46MTLTravis Moen: Roughing2 min
- P3 18:46MTLTravis Moen: Misconduct10 min
- P3 18:46OTTChris Neil: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Spezza won the faceoff against Plekanec
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestShannon – Winchester – Butler3:15
xG 0.18–0.04 (82%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Shannon – Foligno – Winchester2:08
xG 0.04–0.11 (24%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
- Ruutu – Neil – Kelly8:20
xG 0.12–0.23 (34%)attempts 7–9goals 0–1
- Alfredsson – Spezza – Butler2:44
xG 0.07–0.26 (21%)attempts 1–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Carkner – Campoli8:37
xG 0.28–0.24 (54%)attempts 10–9goals 0–1
- Gonchar – Phillips13:41
xG 0.19–0.38 (33%)attempts 11–16goals 0–0
- Kuba – Karlsson12:15
xG 0.28–0.75 (27%)attempts 10–17goals 0–1
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestGomez – Moen – Cammalleri5:08
xG 0.42–0.02 (95%)attempts 8–4goals 0–0
- Halpern – Lapierre – Pyatt7:50
xG 0.28–0.08 (78%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
- Darche – Pouliot – Eller7:24
xG 0.31–0.12 (72%)attempts 15–4goals 0–0
- Gionta – Plekanec – Kostitsyn11:34
xG 0.44–0.34 (56%)attempts 11–11goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestGill – Gorges14:13
xG 0.58–0.21 (73%)attempts 15–11goals 0–0
- Hamrlik – Spacek15:09
xG 0.67–0.39 (63%)attempts 14–18goals 1–0
- Picard – Weber11:05
xG 0.26–0.26 (50%)attempts 15–7goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MTL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MTL is favoured, below it OTT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 74% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MTL − OTT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).