Tue, Dec 7, 2010·Scotiabank Saddledome, Calgary
Tampa Bay Lightning 2, Calgary Flames 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 58% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL | 010 | 27 | 07 | 224 |
| CGY | 27 | 16 | 16 | 419 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:21CGYCory SarichAssists: Adam Pardy, Brendan Morrison · Slap, 0.02 xG0–1
- P1 13:46CGYTom KostopoulosAssists: Rene Bourque, Mark Giordano · Wrist, 0.37 xG0–2
- P2 4:43CGYRene BourqueGWGAssists: Curtis Glencross, Mikael Backlund · Snap, 0.15 xG0–3
- P2 8:35TBLJohan HarjuAssists: Pavel Kubina, Randy Jones · Wrist, 0.02 xG1–3
- P2 19:00TBLRyan MaloneAssists: Nate Thompson, Victor Hedman · Wrist, 0.14 xG2–3
- P3 8:42CGYJarome IginlaPPAssists: Jay Bouwmeester, Rene Bourque · Slap, 0.04 xG2–4
Penalties (6)
- P1 0:56TBLBrett Clark: Tripping2 min
- P2 9:47CGYJay Bouwmeester: Interference2 min
- P2 16:18TBLPavel Kubina: Tripping2 min
- P3 0:49CGYRobyn Regehr: Interference2 min
- P3 6:39TBLNate Thompson: Interference2 min
- P3 8:29TBLAdam Hall: High sticking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Backlund won the faceoff against Thompson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestSt. Louis – Malone – Thompson2:01
xG 0.27–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Gagne – Malone – Moore4:13
xG 0.40–0.15 (73%)attempts 8–2goals 0–1
- Ritola – Harju – Tyrell2:26
xG 0.02–0.06 (30%)attempts 1–2goals 1–0
- St. Louis – Bergenheim – Stamkos3:43
xG 0.02–0.06 (23%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKubina – Hedman4:05
xG 0.46–0.17 (73%)attempts 4–2goals 1–0
- Ohlund – Lundin12:26
xG 0.44–0.36 (55%)attempts 10–11goals 0–0
- Ohlund – Hedman2:24
xG 0.00–0.01 (0%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestGlencross – Bourque – Backlund8:29
xG 0.34–0.15 (69%)attempts 7–4goals 1–1
- Iginla – Tanguay – Stajan14:01
xG 0.56–0.42 (57%)attempts 12–9goals 0–0
- Morrison – Kostopoulos – Jackman7:56
xG 0.07–0.05 (60%)attempts 5–3goals 1–1
- Jokinen – Kotalik – Hagman9:46
xG 0.07–0.71 (8%)attempts 4–14goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestRegehr – Bouwmeester13:47
xG 0.43–0.15 (74%)attempts 13–6goals 0–0
- Sarich – Giordano13:25
xG 0.66–0.63 (51%)attempts 8–12goals 2–1
- Babchuk – Pardy12:17
xG 0.24–0.52 (32%)attempts 9–12goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CGY's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CGY is favoured, below it TBL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 58% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CGY − TBL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).