Wed, Dec 8, 2010·Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia
San Jose Sharks 5, Philadelphia Flyers 4 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 55% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SJS | 16 | 09 | 315 | 03 | 2 | 533 |
| PHI | 09 | 314 | 19 | 03 | 0 | 435 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 19:55SJSRyane CloweAssists: Niclas Wallin, Jason Demers · Deflected, 0.09 xG1–0
- P2 6:21PHIClaude GirouxAssists: Jeff Carter, Braydon Coburn · Wrist, 0.48 xG1–1
- P2 10:20PHIVille LeinoAssists: Scott Hartnell, Kimmo Timonen · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–2
- P2 11:09PHINikolay ZherdevAssists: Matt Carle, Claude Giroux · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–3
- P3 6:15PHIScott HartnellAssists: Matt Carle, Ville Leino · Deflected, 0.21 xG1–4
- P3 7:33SJSJason DemersAssists: Dany Heatley · Wrist, 0.03 xG2–4
- P3 10:51SJSLogan CoutureAssists: Ryane Clowe, Justin Braun · Wrist, 0.45 xG3–4
- P3 11:28SJSJoe PavelskiAssists: Joe Thornton · Snap, 0.09 xG4–4
Shootout
- 1. PHI Daniel Brière stopped
- 2. SJS Logan Couture scored
- 3. PHI Claude Giroux stopped
- 4. SJS Ryane Clowe scored
Penalties (9)
- P2 8:00SJSDouglas Murray: Tripping2 min
- P2 12:32PHIKimmo Timonen: Interference2 min
- P3 1:00SJSJason Demers: Hooking2 min
- P3 8:43PHIJeff Carter: Cross checking2 min
- P3 11:26PHIDaniel Brière: Tripping2 min
- P3 12:50SJSJoe Pavelski: Tripping2 min
- P3 13:27PHIDaniel Brière: High sticking double minor4 min
- OT 3:06SJSDouglas Murray: Roughing2 min
- OT 3:06PHIKimmo Timonen: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Brière won the faceoff against Couture
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestClowe – Ferriero – Couture9:44
xG 0.90–0.66 (58%)attempts 15–9goals 1–1
- Mayers – Nichol – McCarthy6:00
xG 0.06–0.07 (46%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
- Thornton – Heatley – Mitchell11:13
xG 0.28–0.47 (37%)attempts 11–15goals 0–1
- Marleau – Pavelski – McGinn7:31
xG 0.10–0.73 (12%)attempts 4–9goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Vlasic – Demers11:23
xG 0.55–0.62 (47%)attempts 15–9goals 1–0
- Boyle – Murray19:24
xG 0.12–0.87 (12%)attempts 14–25goals 0–2
- Wallin – Braun8:24
xG 0.21–1.06 (17%)attempts 6–12goals 0–2
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestZherdev – Carter – Giroux4:43
xG 0.82–0.08 (91%)attempts 6–4goals 2–0
- Brière – Hartnell – Leino13:58
xG 0.94–0.26 (78%)attempts 21–5goals 2–0
- Carter – Giroux – Powe4:54
xG 0.61–0.17 (78%)attempts 8–5goals 0–1
- Richards – Nodl – van Riemsdyk11:52
xG 0.44–0.22 (67%)attempts 10–15goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestTimonen – Coburn13:05
xG 1.32–0.11 (92%)attempts 19–9goals 2–0
- Pronger – Carle12:56
xG 0.75–0.19 (80%)attempts 12–10goals 2–1
- O'Donnell – Meszaros14:30
xG 0.78–0.43 (65%)attempts 17–11goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHI is favoured, below it SJS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 55% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PHI − SJS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).