Wed, Dec 8, 2010·CONSOL Energy Center, Pittsburgh
Toronto Maple Leafs 2, Pittsburgh Penguins 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 65% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 04 | 06 | 215 | 225 |
| PIT | 113 | 311 | 12 | 526 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 8:35PITSidney CrosbyAssists: Chris Kunitz, Matt Cooke · Backhand, 0.09 xG0–1
- P2 11:38PITPascal DupuisSHAssists: Chris Kunitz · Wrist, 0.12 xG0–2
- P2 13:13PITMark LetestuGWGAssists: Tyler Kennedy, Chris Conner · Wrist, 0.16 xG0–3
- P2 14:46PITSidney CrosbyAssists: Chris Kunitz, Brooks Orpik · Snap, 0.07 xG0–4
- P3 4:36TORTyler BozakPPAssists: Phil Kessel, Kris Versteeg · Backhand, 0.39 xG1–4
- P3 8:38TORMikhail GrabovskiAssists: Tomas Kaberle, Nikolay Kulemin · Snap, 0.04 xG2–4
- P3 17:06PITMark LetestuAssists: Tyler Kennedy, Alex Goligoski · Wrist, 0.08 xG2–5
Penalties (24)
- P1 5:26TORPhil Kessel: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P1 6:13PITSidney Crosby: Roughing2 min
- P1 12:49PITArron Asham: Roughing2 min
- P1 15:47TORColton Orr: Fighting5 min
- P1 15:47PITDeryk Engelland: Fighting5 min
- P2 5:11TORColton Orr: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 10:25PITCraig Adams: Boarding2 min
- P2 16:03TORMike Komisarek: Fighting5 min
- P2 16:03PITArron Asham: Fighting5 min
- P2 16:47TORPhil Kessel: Slashing2 min
- P2 19:44TORKris Versteeg: Slashing2 min
- P2 19:44PITMarc-Andre Fleury: Slashing2 min
- P3 3:03PITMike Rupp: Fighting5 min · PPG
- P3 3:03PITMike Rupp: Boarding2 min
- P3 3:03TORMike Komisarek: Fighting5 min
- P3 3:03TORMike Komisarek: Roughing2 min
- P3 3:43TORJay Rosehill: Fighting5 min
- P3 3:43TORJay Rosehill: Charging2 min
- P3 3:43PITSidney Crosby: Cross checking2 min
- P3 3:43PITEric Godard: Misconduct10 min
- P3 3:43PITSidney Crosby: Roughing2 min
- P3 3:43PITEric Godard: Fighting5 min
- P3 3:43PITEric Godard: Instigator2 min
- P3 9:42PITMatt Cooke: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Crosby won the faceoff against Grabovski
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestArmstrong – Kessel – Bozak2:11
xG 0.08–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Armstrong – Versteeg – Kessel7:08
xG 0.19–0.13 (59%)attempts 5–7goals 0–0
- MacArthur – Grabovski – Kulemin8:50
xG 0.23–0.23 (50%)attempts 8–7goals 1–1
- Orr – Brent – Rosehill2:03
xG 0.00–0.02 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Kaberle – Schenn11:01
xG 0.40–0.36 (52%)attempts 12–11goals 1–0
- Beauchemin – Komisarek2:14
xG 0.14–0.19 (43%)attempts 3–3goals 0–1
- Gunnarsson – Schenn3:23
xG 0.03–0.15 (16%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestKennedy – Conner – Letestu6:08
xG 0.54–0.03 (95%)attempts 7–4goals 2–0
- Dupuis – Kunitz – Crosby7:32
xG 0.36–0.12 (75%)attempts 10–4goals 1–0
- Asham – Cooke – Talbot6:22
xG 0.05–0.04 (55%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Kunitz – Kennedy – Crosby2:20
xG 0.00–0.18 (0%)attempts 0–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMartin – Michalek12:25
xG 0.97–0.13 (88%)attempts 17–9goals 1–0
- Engelland – Goligoski9:37
xG 0.60–0.12 (83%)attempts 11–6goals 1–1
- Orpik – Goligoski2:08
xG 0.10–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PIT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PIT is favoured, below it TOR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 65% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PIT − TOR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).