Wed, Dec 8, 2010·United Center, Chicago
Dallas Stars 3, Chicago Blackhawks 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 59% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | 07 | 311 | 013 | 331 |
| CHI | 210 | 25 | 110 | 525 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:18CHIBryan BickellAssists: Jassen Cullimore, Nick Boynton · Snap, 0.06 xG0–1
- P1 13:33CHIJonathan ToewsAssists: Brent Seabrook, Duncan Keith · Wrist, 0.02 xG0–2
- P2 1:36CHIJeremy MorinAssists: Dave Bolland · Wrist, 0.10 xG0–3
- P2 1:56DALJames NealAssists: Brad Richards, Loui Eriksson · Backhand, 0.24 xG1–3
- P2 2:21CHITroy BrouwerGWGAssists: Dave Bolland, Bryan Bickell · Backhand, 0.17 xG1–4
- P2 16:06DALBrandon SegalUnassisted · Wrist, 0.02 xG2–4
- P2 17:11DALLoui ErikssonAssists: Brad Richards, James Neal · Wrist, 0.15 xG3–4
- P3 19:59CHIPatrick SharpENAssists: Jonathan Toews, Duncan Keith · Wrist, 0.68 xG3–5
Penalties (9)
- P1 12:12CHIJake Dowell: Fighting5 min
- P1 12:12DALSteve Ott: Fighting5 min
- P1 18:07DALStephane Robidas: Elbowing2 min
- P1 19:32DALNicklas Grossmann: Slashing2 min
- P2 6:00DALJames Neal: Tripping2 min
- P2 8:23DALTom Wandell: Tripping2 min
- P3 3:29CHIJack Skille: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P3 14:47DALStephane Robidas: Holding2 min
- P3 18:44DALStephane Robidas: Hooking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Ribeiro won the faceoff against Bolland
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestRichards – Eriksson – Neal11:22
xG 0.71–0.63 (53%)attempts 11–16goals 2–1
- Sutherby – Burish – Wandell2:18
xG 0.00–0.02 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0
- Ott – Segal – Burish4:54
xG 0.17–0.38 (31%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
- Morrow – Ribeiro – Benn12:09
xG 0.07–0.29 (20%)attempts 5–5goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestWoywitka – Daley14:29
xG 0.63–0.26 (71%)attempts 10–13goals 1–0
- Skrastins – Niskanen3:22
xG 0.13–0.02 (87%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Grossmann – Larsen4:23
xG 0.01–0.01 (49%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestDowell – Skille – Toews2:13
xG 0.48–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 0–0
- Kopecky – Sharp – Morin7:26
xG 0.50–0.07 (87%)attempts 13–5goals 0–0
- Bolland – Bickell – Brouwer11:20
xG 0.23–0.06 (79%)attempts 3–6goals 2–1
- Skille – Toews – Klinkhammer2:04
xG 0.05–0.07 (42%)attempts 3–1goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestCampbell – Hjalmarsson18:16
xG 0.62–0.23 (73%)attempts 10–10goals 1–0
- Keith – Seabrook14:27
xG 0.80–0.66 (55%)attempts 20–16goals 1–3
- Cullimore – Boynton9:49
xG 0.17–0.27 (39%)attempts 8–5goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CHI is favoured, below it DAL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 59% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CHI − DAL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).