Thu, Dec 9, 2010·Air Canada Centre, Toronto
Philadelphia Flyers 4, Toronto Maple Leafs 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 53% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 210 | 29 | 09 | 428 |
| TOR | 09 | 113 | 010 | 132 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 11:13PHIVille LeinoPPAssists: Kimmo Timonen, Mike Richards · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–0
- P1 12:32PHIChris ProngerGWGAssists: Daniel Brière, Matt Carle · Slap, 0.11 xG2–0
- P2 12:18PHIDaniel BrièreAssists: Andrej Meszaros, Sean O'Donnell · Wrist, 0.08 xG3–0
- P2 16:14TORMikhail GrabovskiAssists: Clarke MacArthur, Dion Phaneuf · Snap, 0.09 xG3–1
- P2 17:17PHIDaniel BrièreAssists: Andrej Meszaros, Jody Shelley · Backhand, 0.09 xG4–1
Penalties (9)
- P1 11:07TORColby Armstrong: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P1 13:17PHIBraydon Coburn: Hooking2 min
- P1 13:17PHIBraydon Coburn: Cross checking2 min
- P2 2:42PHISean O'Donnell: Interference2 min
- P2 9:46PHIJames van Riemsdyk: Hooking2 min
- P2 13:57TORMikhail Grabovski: Boarding2 min
- P2 17:17PHIJody Shelley: Misconduct10 min
- P3 1:23TORColby Armstrong: High sticking2 min
- P3 8:11TORDion Phaneuf: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Carter won the faceoff against Grabovski
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestZherdev – Carter – Giroux7:45
xG 0.35–0.15 (70%)attempts 8–6goals 0–0
- Richards – Nodl – van Riemsdyk10:56
xG 0.15–0.08 (67%)attempts 13–13goals 0–0
- Brière – Hartnell – Leino11:34
xG 0.34–0.40 (46%)attempts 10–12goals 2–0
- Shelley – Betts – Powe3:30
xG 0.03–0.10 (24%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPronger – Carle14:54
xG 0.50–0.19 (72%)attempts 15–13goals 1–0
- Timonen – Coburn11:47
xG 0.29–0.32 (48%)attempts 11–13goals 0–1
- O'Donnell – Meszaros13:09
xG 0.36–0.63 (37%)attempts 13–23goals 2–0
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestMitchell – Versteeg – Kadri13:18
xG 0.47–0.36 (56%)attempts 18–17goals 0–1
- MacArthur – Grabovski – Kulemin9:13
xG 0.29–0.22 (57%)attempts 7–11goals 1–0
- Armstrong – Kessel – Bozak12:13
xG 0.28–0.24 (54%)attempts 16–8goals 0–0
- Orr – Sjostrom – Brent3:51
xG 0.11–0.09 (56%)attempts 5–2goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestBeauchemin – Phaneuf13:27
xG 0.63–0.37 (63%)attempts 16–14goals 1–1
- Kaberle – Phaneuf2:06
xG 0.11–0.02 (88%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Beauchemin – Lebda2:06
xG 0.07–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–0goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TOR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TOR is favoured, below it PHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 53% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TOR − PHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).