Thu, Dec 9, 2010·Verizon Center, Washington
Florida Panthers 3, Washington Capitals 0
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 57% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA | 06 | 114 | 212 | 332 |
| WSH | 018 | 09 | 09 | 036 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 19:59FLAMichael FrolikGWGAssists: Steve Reinprecht, Jason Garrison · Wrist, 0.30 xG1–0
- P3 8:10FLASteve BernierAssists: Stephen Weiss, Dmitry Kulikov · Wrist, 0.44 xG2–0
- P3 17:26FLAMike SantorelliPPAssists: Stephen Weiss, Dennis Wideman · Wrist, 0.21 xG3–0
Penalties (16)
- P1 5:43FLAMike Weaver: High sticking2 min
- P1 8:32FLAMike Santorelli: Holding2 min
- P1 11:33WSHMatt Hendricks: Fighting5 min
- P1 11:33FLAKenndal McArdle: Fighting5 min
- P1 11:53FLABryan McCabe: Holding2 min
- P1 12:00FLASteve Bernier: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P1 19:00FLAMike Santorelli: Tripping2 min
- P2 6:46WSHJohn Carlson: Boarding2 min
- P2 8:56FLAStephen Weiss: Tripping2 min
- P2 10:43FLADavid Booth: Slashing2 min
- P2 16:51WSHJohn Erskine: Hooking2 min
- P2 17:33WSHScott Hannan: Holding the stick2 min
- P3 6:08WSHTom Poti: Interference2 min
- P3 11:10FLABill Thomas: Interference2 min
- P3 14:38WSHMathieu Perreault: Tripping2 min
- P3 17:04WSHMike Green: Holding2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Perreault won the faceoff against Weiss
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestReasoner – McArdle – Dadonov2:35
xG 0.08–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Bernier – Booth – Santorelli6:30
xG 0.18–0.14 (56%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
- Reinprecht – Weiss – Frolik6:45
xG 0.13–0.49 (21%)attempts 5–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Wideman – Ellerby11:44
xG 0.42–0.50 (46%)attempts 12–13goals 0–0
- McCabe – Kulikov8:57
xG 0.15–0.26 (36%)attempts 3–6goals 0–0
- McCabe – Wideman2:05
xG 0.07–0.28 (21%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestHendricks – Steckel – Gordon4:29
xG 0.78–0.05 (94%)attempts 7–1goals 0–0
- Chimera – Fehr – Johansson3:59
xG 0.28–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 0–0
- Laich – Ovechkin – Perreault3:07
xG 0.05–0.05 (50%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Knuble – Ovechkin – Backstrom4:43
xG 0.06–0.09 (39%)attempts 3–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPoti – Erskine11:13
xG 0.69–0.15 (82%)attempts 17–9goals 0–0
- Hannan – Green10:47
xG 0.28–0.25 (53%)attempts 7–7goals 0–0
- Alzner – Carlson7:17
xG 0.47–0.79 (37%)attempts 3–9goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WSH is favoured, below it FLA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 57% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WSH − FLA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).