Thu, Dec 9, 2010·Scotiabank Place, Ottawa
New York Rangers 5, Ottawa Senators 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 50% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYR | 16 | 116 | 36 | 528 |
| OTT | 110 | 210 | 07 | 327 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:54OTTMike FisherPPAssists: Nick Foligno · Wrist, 0.42 xG0–1
- P1 4:40NYRDerek StepanAssists: Marian Gaborik · Wrist, 0.19 xG1–1
- P2 0:34OTTJason SpezzaPPAssists: Erik Karlsson, Sergei Gonchar · Wrist, 0.18 xG1–2
- P2 1:43NYRRuslan FedotenkoAssists: Marian Gaborik, Michal Rozsival · Snap, 0.07 xG2–2
- P2 8:47OTTMike FisherAssists: Nick Foligno, Chris Campoli · Wrist, 0.10 xG2–3
- P3 3:30NYRErik ChristensenAssists: Michal Rozsival, Steve Eminger · Slap, 0.26 xG3–3
- P3 14:41NYRMichael SauerPPGWGAssists: Brandon Prust, Sean Avery · Slap, 0.07 xG4–3
- P3 19:08NYRBrandon DubinskyENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.67 xG5–3
Penalties (11)
- P1 1:33NYRMichal Rozsival: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P1 5:45NYRAlex Frolov: Boarding2 min
- P1 10:09OTTNick Foligno: Tripping2 min
- P1 17:29OTTMatt Carkner: Fighting5 min
- P1 17:29NYRDerek Boogaard: Fighting5 min · PPG
- P1 17:29OTTMatt Carkner: Misconduct10 min
- P1 19:36NYRBrandon Dubinsky: Roughing2 min
- P2 10:03OTTChris Phillips: Slashing2 min
- P2 13:54OTTFilip Kuba: Interference2 min
- P3 4:29NYRMichal Rozsival: Hooking2 min
- P3 12:46OTTChris Neil: Charging2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Spezza won the faceoff against Stepan
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestFedotenko – Gaborik – Stepan11:18
xG 0.70–0.23 (75%)attempts 12–7goals 2–0
- Christensen – Dubinsky – Callahan2:58
xG 0.40–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–1goals 1–0
- Avery – Gaborik – Christensen2:13
xG 0.07–0.04 (65%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
- Avery – Boogaard – Christensen2:10
xG 0.00–0.04 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestStaal – Girardi15:33
xG 0.59–0.30 (67%)attempts 12–15goals 1–0
- Rozsival – Eminger11:19
xG 0.74–0.46 (62%)attempts 9–10goals 1–1
- Rozsival – Staal2:01
xG 0.00–0.14 (0%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestAlfredsson – Fisher – Foligno11:13
xG 0.38–0.20 (65%)attempts 13–4goals 1–0
- Ruutu – Neil – Kelly8:48
xG 0.31–0.25 (55%)attempts 8–4goals 0–1
- Spezza – Michalek – Butler11:07
xG 0.28–0.27 (50%)attempts 10–8goals 0–0
- Kovalev – Regin – Winchester6:10
xG 0.20–0.36 (35%)attempts 7–5goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestGonchar – Karlsson4:16
xG 0.47–0.00 (100%)attempts 11–1goals 0–0
- Carkner – Campoli4:20
xG 0.25–0.04 (88%)attempts 8–1goals 0–0
- Campoli – Karlsson3:08
xG 0.02–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–0goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
OTT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line OTT is favoured, below it NYR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 50% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (OTT − NYR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).