Thu, Dec 9, 2010·Scottrade Center, St. Louis
Columbus Blue Jackets 1, St. Louis Blues 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 51% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CBJ | 07 | 09 | 112 | 128 |
| STL | 210 | 19 | 15 | 424 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:14STLAlexander SteenPPAssists: Carlo Colaiacovo, David Backes · Wrist, 0.05 xG0–1
- P1 13:19STLJay McClementPPGWGAssists: Erik Johnson, David Backes · Deflected, 0.13 xG0–2
- P2 19:16STLVladimir SobotkaPPAssists: Erik Johnson, Matt D'Agostini · Deflected, 0.09 xG0–3
- P3 6:56CBJJan HejdaAssists: Rick Nash, Anton Stralman · Snap, 0.09 xG1–3
- P3 17:13STLDavid BackesENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.68 xG1–4
Penalties (15)
- P1 0:38CBJSamuel Pahlsson: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 10:27STLDave Scatchard: Hooking2 min
- P1 10:56STLIan Cole: Hooking2 min
- P1 12:06CBJKyle Wilson: Too many men on the ice2 min · PPG
- P1 16:44STLCam Janssen: Fighting5 min
- P1 16:44CBJJared Boll: Fighting5 min
- P1 19:50STLMatt D'Agostini: Delaying game bench face off violation2 min
- P2 1:48STLAlexander Steen: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 5:17STLBarret Jackman: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P2 5:17CBJDerek Dorsett: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P2 5:17STLBrad Winchester: Roughing2 min
- P2 6:01STLErik Johnson: Interference2 min
- P2 17:27CBJMike Commodore: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 2:36STLStefan Della Rovere: Tripping2 min
- P3 10:43STLPatrik Berglund: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Berglund won the faceoff against Pahlsson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestClark – Pahlsson – Dorsett5:10
xG 0.27–0.06 (81%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Vermette – Nash – Voracek10:43
xG 0.41–0.30 (58%)attempts 11–9goals 0–0
- Umberger – Brassard – Filatov2:07
xG 0.05–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Umberger – Wilson – Filatov3:06
xG 0.01–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestCommodore – Russell13:36
xG 0.55–0.23 (70%)attempts 18–7goals 0–0
- Hejda – Stralman14:02
xG 0.44–0.15 (75%)attempts 10–7goals 0–0
- Klesla – Methot9:14
xG 0.33–0.95 (26%)attempts 6–10goals 0–0
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestBoyes – Backes – Sobotka8:37
xG 0.82–0.33 (71%)attempts 13–4goals 0–0
- McClement – Steen – D'Agostini7:42
xG 0.48–0.15 (77%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
- Scatchard – Janssen – Della Rovere4:01
xG 0.31–0.05 (87%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Winchester – Crombeen – Berglund9:16
xG 0.04–0.47 (8%)attempts 1–15goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestColaiacovo – Johnson9:51
xG 0.85–0.14 (86%)attempts 9–6goals 0–0
- Brewer – Cole10:52
xG 0.38–0.29 (57%)attempts 7–8goals 0–0
- Colaiacovo – Cole3:01
xG 0.09–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
STL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line STL is favoured, below it CBJ. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 51% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (STL − CBJ), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).