Fri, Dec 10, 2010·Scotiabank Place, Ottawa
New Jersey Devils 2, Ottawa Senators 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 80% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NJD | 07 | 213 | 011 | 231 |
| OTT | 113 | 26 | 010 | 329 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 15:30OTTErik KarlssonUnassisted · Slap, 0.02 xG0–1
- P2 4:46NJDPatrik EliasPPAssists: Ilya Kovalchuk, Martin Brodeur · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–1
- P2 9:39OTTMilan MichalekAssists: Alex Kovalev, Erik Karlsson · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–2
- P2 11:55OTTJarkko RuutuGWGAssists: Chris Neil, Chris Kelly · Wrist, 0.42 xG1–3
- P2 14:10NJDDainius ZubrusPPAssists: Travis Zajac, Ilya Kovalchuk · Slap, 0.09 xG2–3
Penalties (7)
- P1 12:29NJDBrian Rolston: Hooking2 min
- P1 16:46NJDJamie Langenbrunner: Interference2 min
- P2 4:20OTTChris Phillips: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 13:18OTTSergei Gonchar: Holding2 min · PPG
- P3 6:05NJDMatthew Corrente: Interference2 min
- P3 10:27NJDDainius Zubrus: High sticking2 min
- P3 14:46OTTMike Fisher: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Arnott won the faceoff against Spezza
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestArnott – Elias – Zubrus10:16
xG 0.27–0.03 (89%)attempts 10–4goals 0–0
- Langenbrunner – Kovalchuk – Zajac11:36
xG 0.36–0.15 (71%)attempts 12–8goals 0–0
- Mair – Kovalchuk – Clarkson2:16
xG 0.11–0.05 (68%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Pelley – Vasyunov – Tedenby4:46
xG 0.09–0.13 (42%)attempts 6–4goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- White – Tallinder14:55
xG 0.44–0.42 (51%)attempts 18–15goals 0–1
- Fayne – Greene13:59
xG 0.47–0.63 (43%)attempts 13–5goals 0–2
- Volchenkov – Corrente13:17
xG 0.27–0.48 (36%)attempts 11–12goals 0–0
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestRuutu – Neil – Kelly10:25
xG 0.68–0.24 (74%)attempts 9–8goals 2–0
- Regin – Winchester – Butler5:26
xG 0.32–0.10 (76%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Kovalev – Spezza – Michalek11:29
xG 0.39–0.41 (49%)attempts 11–13goals 1–0
- Alfredsson – Fisher – Foligno12:02
xG 0.16–0.25 (40%)attempts 7–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPhillips – Karlsson13:38
xG 0.90–0.27 (77%)attempts 17–8goals 3–0
- Carkner – Campoli11:06
xG 0.45–0.42 (52%)attempts 8–16goals 0–0
- Gonchar – Kuba13:40
xG 0.03–0.41 (7%)attempts 2–15goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
OTT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line OTT is favoured, below it NJD. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 80% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (OTT − NJD), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).