Fri, Dec 10, 2010·Philips Arena, Atlanta
Colorado Avalanche 4, Atlanta Thrashers 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 87% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL | 016 | 28 | 25 | 429 |
| ATL | 15 | 19 | 012 | 226 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:37ATLNiclas BergforsAssists: Andrew Ladd, Dustin Byfuglien · Wrist, 0.17 xG0–1
- P2 4:39COLTomas FleischmannPPAssists: Matt Duchene · Wrist, 0.41 xG1–1
- P2 11:01COLGreg MauldinSHUnassisted · Snap, 0.12 xG2–1
- P2 15:13ATLBryan LittleAssists: Evander Kane · Slap, 0.04 xG2–2
- P3 0:42COLMilan HejdukGWGAssists: Tomas Fleischmann, Matt Duchene · Wrist, 0.11 xG3–2
- P3 19:21COLPaul StastnyENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.48 xG4–2
Penalties (9)
- P1 6:07ATLJohnny Oduya: Cross checking2 min
- P2 3:24ATLRich Peverley: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 8:30ATLChris Thorburn: Holding2 min
- P2 9:16COLPaul Stastny: Tripping2 min
- P3 11:23COLBrandon Yip: Tripping2 min
- P3 18:36COLPhilippe Dupuis: Tripping2 min
- P3 19:40ATLEvander Kane: Misconduct10 min
- P3 19:40COLAdam Foote: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P3 19:40ATLChris Thorburn: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Duchene won the faceoff against Peverley
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestJones – Yip – Stastny9:51
xG 0.91–0.51 (64%)attempts 9–16goals 0–1
- Porter – Winnik – O'Reilly10:01
xG 0.57–0.20 (74%)attempts 14–8goals 0–0
- Hejduk – Fleischmann – Duchene9:57
xG 0.49–0.17 (74%)attempts 8–5goals 1–1
- Mauldin – Dupuis – McLeod4:31
xG 0.15–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–0goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestFoote – Hunwick12:17
xG 1.43–0.32 (82%)attempts 13–10goals 0–1
- Quincey – Shattenkirk16:28
xG 0.73–0.54 (57%)attempts 12–11goals 1–1
- Liles – O'Byrne16:02
xG 0.42–0.43 (50%)attempts 11–18goals 0–0
Atlanta Thrashers
Forward lines
- bestStewart – Little – Kane12:46
xG 0.62–0.44 (59%)attempts 18–7goals 1–0
- Boulton – Thorburn – Slater6:30
xG 0.04–0.22 (17%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
- Antropov – Eager – Burmistrov9:32
xG 0.31–0.59 (34%)attempts 9–11goals 0–0
- Ladd – Peverley – Bergfors13:19
xG 0.33–0.89 (27%)attempts 13–8goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestEnstrom – Byfuglien18:38
xG 0.79–0.36 (69%)attempts 23–8goals 2–1
- Oduya – Bogosian15:55
xG 0.34–0.58 (37%)attempts 12–10goals 0–0
- Sopel – Hainsey11:37
xG 0.16–0.81 (16%)attempts 9–14goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ATL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ATL is favoured, below it COL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 87% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ATL − COL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).