Sat, Dec 11, 2010·Verizon Center, Washington
Colorado Avalanche 3, Washington Capitals 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 77% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL | 213 | 18 | 05 | 326 |
| WSH | 111 | 014 | 117 | 242 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:14COLKevin ShattenkirkAssists: Paul Stastny · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–0
- P1 9:45WSHMike KnubleAssists: Alex Ovechkin, Karl Alzner · Backhand, 0.26 xG1–1
- P1 18:39COLRyan WilsonAssists: Paul Stastny, Kevin Porter · Wrist, 0.05 xG2–1
- P2 9:53COLPaul StastnyPPGWGAssists: Kevin Shattenkirk, Daniel Winnik · Wrist, 0.16 xG3–1
- P3 4:30WSHMatt HendricksPPAssists: Mike Knuble, Nicklas Backstrom · Backhand, 0.13 xG3–2
Penalties (8)
- P1 2:39WSHJason Chimera: High sticking2 min
- P2 1:35COLAdam Foote: Hooking2 min
- P2 6:07WSHAlexander Semin: Cross checking5 min · PPG
- P2 6:07WSHAlexander Semin: Game misconduct10 min
- P2 15:11COLCody McLeod: Fighting5 min
- P2 15:11WSHMatt Bradley: Fighting5 min
- P3 3:00COLTomas Fleischmann: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P3 13:17COLKevin Porter: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Duchene won the faceoff against Backstrom
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestMauldin – Winnik – O'Reilly8:57
xG 0.43–0.19 (70%)attempts 8–10goals 0–0
- Dupuis – McLeod – O'Reilly2:02
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Porter – Yip – Stastny11:10
xG 0.33–0.59 (36%)attempts 10–18goals 2–0
- Fleischmann – Jones – Duchene13:26
xG 0.34–1.41 (20%)attempts 8–24goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestFoote – Liles2:09
xG 0.15–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Liles – Shattenkirk2:07
xG 0.22–0.17 (56%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Foote – Hunwick9:06
xG 0.47–0.57 (45%)attempts 8–13goals 0–0
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestKnuble – Ovechkin – Backstrom16:07
xG 1.00–0.47 (68%)attempts 25–11goals 1–0
- Laich – Semin – Perreault5:45
xG 0.42–0.13 (77%)attempts 14–3goals 0–0
- Hendricks – Gordon – Fehr5:01
xG 0.09–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 0–0
- Laich – Fehr – Perreault3:11
xG 0.10–0.08 (56%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestAlzner – Carlson15:08
xG 0.89–0.31 (74%)attempts 27–7goals 0–0
- Poti – Hannan15:31
xG 0.90–0.47 (66%)attempts 20–12goals 0–2
- Erskine – Fahey10:57
xG 0.67–0.27 (71%)attempts 13–6goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WSH is favoured, below it COL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 77% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WSH − COL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).