Sat, Dec 11, 2010·Bridgestone Arena, Nashville
Florida Panthers 0, Nashville Predators 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 63% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA | 06 | 06 | 010 | 022 |
| NSH | 29 | 010 | 18 | 327 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:14NSHRyan SuterGWGAssists: Martin Erat, Sergei Kostitsyn · Snap, 0.04 xG0–1
- P1 16:49NSHShea WeberAssists: Ryan Suter, Jerred Smithson · Slap, 0.02 xG0–2
- P3 19:06NSHJoel WardENAssists: Francis Bouillon, Cody Franson · Wrist, 0.56 xG0–3
Penalties (9)
- P1 4:08FLATomas Vokoun: High sticking2 min
- P1 9:29NSHJordin Tootoo: Roughing2 min
- P1 9:29FLABryan McCabe: Roughing2 min
- P1 13:17FLAKenndal McArdle: Holding2 min
- P1 13:17NSHSteve Sullivan: Cross checking2 min
- P2 5:56FLAKenndal McArdle: Charging2 min
- P2 11:46NSHPatric Hornqvist: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P2 15:03FLAKenndal McArdle: Boarding2 min
- P3 18:08FLADennis Wideman: Hooking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Santorelli won the faceoff against Smithson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestBernier – Booth – Santorelli9:30
xG 0.43–0.22 (66%)attempts 10–5goals 0–0
- Weiss – Frolik – Matthias8:27
xG 0.15–0.14 (52%)attempts 7–2goals 0–0
- Reasoner – Matthias – Dadonov3:19
xG 0.01–0.02 (42%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
- Reinprecht – Hordichuk – Thomas5:48
xG 0.20–0.23 (46%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestWeaver – Garrison11:31
xG 0.35–0.08 (81%)attempts 11–6goals 0–0
- McCabe – Kulikov12:30
xG 0.30–0.24 (56%)attempts 9–13goals 0–1
- Wideman – Ellerby11:30
xG 0.44–0.38 (53%)attempts 9–9goals 0–1
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestDumont – Hornqvist – Spaling9:18
xG 0.45–0.12 (79%)attempts 13–3goals 0–0
- Smithson – Ward – Tootoo8:54
xG 0.43–0.13 (77%)attempts 8–5goals 1–0
- Sullivan – O'Reilly – Wilson9:40
xG 0.05–0.22 (20%)attempts 4–9goals 0–0
- Erat – Goc – Kostitsyn9:44
xG 0.20–0.48 (29%)attempts 8–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSuter – Weber13:42
xG 0.51–0.22 (70%)attempts 14–7goals 2–0
- O'Brien – Franson13:10
xG 0.38–0.28 (57%)attempts 17–10goals 0–0
- Bouillon – Klein13:18
xG 0.15–0.69 (18%)attempts 4–13goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NSH is favoured, below it FLA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 63% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NSH − FLA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).