Sat, Dec 11, 2010·Jobing.com Arena, Glendale
Dallas Stars 2, Phoenix Coyotes 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Phoenix Coyotes win this game 65% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | 015 | 111 | 19 | 235 |
| PHX | 318 | 07 | 29 | 534 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:11PHXRay WhitneyAssists: Radim Vrbata, Ed Jovanovski · Wrist, 0.17 xG0–1
- P1 7:19PHXShane DoanAssists: Eric Belanger · Wrist, 0.04 xG0–2
- P1 19:37PHXShane DoanPPGWGAssists: Ray Whitney, Keith Yandle · Wrist, 0.32 xG0–3
- P2 3:11DALJames NealAssists: Tom Wandell, Adam Burish · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–3
- P3 1:02PHXLauri KorpikoskiSHAssists: Vernon Fiddler, Keith Yandle · Backhand, 0.15 xG1–4
- P3 10:25PHXKeith YandleAssists: Lee Stempniak, Wojtek Wolski · Wrist, 0.14 xG1–5
- P3 17:36DALLoui ErikssonPPAssists: Brenden Morrow · Wrist, 0.31 xG2–5
Penalties (13)
- P1 12:23PHXNolan Yonkman: Tripping2 min
- P1 17:01PHXEd Jovanovski: Interference2 min
- P1 19:12DALMike Ribeiro: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P2 4:06DALTrevor Daley: Holding2 min
- P2 6:25PHXEric Belanger: Holding2 min
- P2 8:40DALBrian Sutherby: Fighting5 min
- P2 8:40PHXEd Jovanovski: Fighting5 min
- P2 9:48PHXNolan Yonkman: Interference2 min
- P2 14:53PHXEd Jovanovski: Interference2 min
- P3 0:35PHXEd Jovanovski: Elbowing2 min
- P3 2:36DALSteve Ott: Interference2 min
- P3 13:10DALStephane Robidas: Tripping2 min
- P3 16:22PHXAdrian Aucoin: Hooking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Fiddler won the faceoff against Burish
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestBurish – Neal – Wandell5:25
xG 0.23–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–0goals 1–0
- Sutherby – Segal – Gagnon3:40
xG 0.16–0.03 (86%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Richards – Ott – Eriksson3:17
xG 0.11–0.00 (97%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Morrow – Ribeiro – Benn6:55
xG 0.35–0.34 (51%)attempts 7–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSkrastins – Niskanen9:14
xG 0.46–0.28 (62%)attempts 12–7goals 1–0
- Robidas – Grossmann12:31
xG 0.37–0.78 (32%)attempts 8–12goals 0–2
- Woywitka – Daley12:51
xG 0.38–0.90 (30%)attempts 12–15goals 0–1
Phoenix Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestWhitney – Vrbata – Hanzal8:24
xG 0.50–0.20 (72%)attempts 8–5goals 0–0
- Doan – Belanger – Upshall10:58
xG 0.44–0.34 (56%)attempts 10–7goals 1–0
- Stempniak – Wolski – Turris6:49
xG 0.27–0.17 (61%)attempts 9–6goals 0–1
- Pyatt – Fiddler – Korpikoski5:30
xG 0.00–0.26 (0%)attempts 1–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestAucoin – Jovanovski14:09
xG 0.72–0.17 (80%)attempts 17–6goals 2–1
- Morris – Yandle11:35
xG 1.11–0.62 (64%)attempts 13–16goals 1–0
- Yonkman – Ekman-Larsson8:18
xG 0.13–0.43 (24%)attempts 5–10goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PHX's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHX is favoured, below it DAL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Phoenix Coyotes win this game 65% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PHX − DAL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).