Sun, Dec 12, 2010·Rexall Place, Edmonton
Vancouver Canucks 2, Edmonton Oilers 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 84% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VAN | 19 | 19 | 014 | 232 |
| EDM | 04 | 07 | 11 | 112 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:12VANAlexandre BurrowsAssists: Daniel Sedin, Henrik Sedin · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–0
- P2 6:37VANHenrik SedinGWGAssists: Daniel Sedin, Ryan Kesler · Wrist, 0.11 xG2–0
- P3 19:55EDMJordan EberlePPAssists: Dustin Penner, Kurtis Foster · Snap, 0.19 xG2–1
Penalties (9)
- P1 7:13VANAndrew Alberts: Penalty shot tripping on breakaway0 min
- P2 4:33EDMSam Gagner: Holding2 min
- P2 14:14VANRyan Kesler: Hooking2 min
- P2 17:27VANDaniel Sedin: Hooking2 min
- P3 2:03VANMikael Samuelsson: Hooking2 min
- P3 9:30EDMSam Gagner: Tripping2 min
- P3 13:58EDMGilbert Brule: Boarding2 min
- P3 14:10EDMTheo Peckham: High sticking2 min
- P3 19:20VANRyan Kesler: Slashing2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00O'Marra won the faceoff against Malhotra
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestSamuelsson – Kesler – Tambellini11:03
xG 0.41–0.04 (92%)attempts 12–7goals 0–0
- Sedin – Sedin – Burrows10:23
xG 0.60–0.24 (71%)attempts 8–7goals 1–0
- Malhotra – Torres – Hansen9:15
xG 0.07–0.11 (39%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
- Andersson – Bolduc – Glass5:54
xG 0.00–0.13 (0%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBallard – Edler13:41
xG 0.47–0.12 (79%)attempts 10–6goals 1–0
- Alberts – Rome11:13
xG 0.31–0.03 (92%)attempts 8–5goals 0–0
- Hamhuis – Bieksa15:46
xG 0.57–0.34 (63%)attempts 14–16goals 0–0
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- Jacques – Fraser – Brule5:57
xG 0.01–0.04 (24%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
- Cogliano – Eberle – Hall2:33
xG 0.00–0.06 (0%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Gagner – Eberle – Hall8:26
xG 0.21–0.29 (42%)attempts 7–10goals 0–0
- Jones – O'Marra – Omark7:29
xG 0.04–0.14 (22%)attempts 3–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSmid – Peckham3:24
xG 0.19–0.11 (63%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Foster – Peckham3:03
xG 0.01–0.04 (27%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
- Gilbert – Whitney5:53
xG 0.01–0.07 (15%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
EDM's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line EDM is favoured, below it VAN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 84% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (EDM − VAN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).