Sun, Dec 12, 2010·Honda Center, Anaheim
Minnesota Wild 2, Anaheim Ducks 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 86% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 17 | 111 | 04 | 222 |
| ANA | 29 | 315 | 112 | 636 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:19ANACorey PerryAssists: Bobby Ryan · Slap, 0.15 xG0–1
- P1 6:36MINBrent BurnsAssists: Martin Havlat, Mikko Koivu · Slap, 0.10 xG1–1
- P1 7:08ANARyan GetzlafAssists: Bobby Ryan, Corey Perry · Wrist, 0.13 xG1–2
- P2 2:51ANARyan GetzlafPPGWGAssists: Corey Perry, Lubomir Visnovsky · Slap, 0.14 xG1–3
- P2 9:49MINMarek ZidlickyPPAssists: Andrew Brunette, Mikko Koivu · Wrist, 0.40 xG2–3
- P2 14:19ANACorey PerryUnassisted · Wrist, 0.36 xG2–4
- P2 17:26ANABobby RyanAssists: Toni Lydman, Lubomir Visnovsky · Wrist, 0.16 xG2–5
- P3 15:47ANACorey PerryPPAssists: Ryan Getzlaf, Cam Fowler · Wrist, 0.19 xG2–6
Penalties (10)
- P1 3:32ANAAndreas Lilja: Holding2 min
- P2 1:09MINMarek Zidlicky: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 1:48MINChuck Kobasew: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 6:39ANAJason Blake: Interference2 min
- P2 9:00ANALuca Sbisa: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P2 12:39ANAAndreas Lilja: Interference2 min
- P2 14:19MINMartin Havlat: Penalty shot hooking on breakaway0 min
- P2 19:00MINNick Schultz: High sticking double minor4 min
- P3 10:40MINCal Clutterbuck: Boarding2 min
- P3 14:36MINJared Spurgeon: Tripping2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Getzlaf won the faceoff against Koivu
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestHavlat – Bouchard – Brodziak9:22
xG 0.22–0.08 (74%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
- Peters – Kobasew – Staubitz3:54
xG 0.03–0.04 (44%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Brunette – Miettinen – Koivu8:15
xG 0.29–0.57 (34%)attempts 9–8goals 0–2
- Nystrom – O'Sullivan – Clutterbuck6:53
xG 0.06–0.35 (15%)attempts 3–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSchultz – Burns14:26
xG 0.31–0.19 (62%)attempts 17–7goals 1–1
- Barker – Spurgeon10:56
xG 0.36–0.33 (52%)attempts 7–8goals 0–0
- Zanon – Spurgeon3:45
xG 0.03–0.29 (9%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestBlake – Lupul – Bonino8:50
xG 0.40–0.06 (87%)attempts 11–4goals 0–0
- Getzlaf – Perry – Ryan10:31
xG 0.37–0.15 (71%)attempts 8–12goals 2–0
- Marchant – McMillan – Sexton8:56
xG 0.20–0.41 (32%)attempts 5–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBrookbank – Sbisa10:54
xG 0.69–0.11 (87%)attempts 12–6goals 0–0
- Lydman – Visnovsky8:55
xG 0.43–0.32 (58%)attempts 7–9goals 2–0
- Lilja – Fowler12:08
xG 0.08–0.24 (25%)attempts 5–7goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ANA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ANA is favoured, below it MIN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 86% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ANA − MIN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).