Mon, Dec 13, 2010·Scotiabank Place, Ottawa
Atlanta Thrashers 4, Ottawa Senators 3 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 65% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ATL | 210 | 14 | 07 | 13 | 424 |
| OTT | 011 | 16 | 213 | 00 | 330 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 9:36ATLJim SlaterAssists: Eric Boulton, Chris Thorburn · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–0
- P1 17:18ATLBryan LittleAssists: Chris Thorburn, Dustin Byfuglien · Wrist, 0.49 xG2–0
- P2 17:38ATLDustin ByfuglienAssists: Rich Peverley, Nik Antropov · Wrist, 0.38 xG3–0
- P2 18:31OTTDaniel AlfredssonUnassisted · Snap, 0.15 xG3–1
- P3 5:48OTTChris NeilAssists: Jarkko Ruutu, Chris Kelly · Wrist, 0.38 xG3–2
- P3 7:23OTTJason SpezzaUnassisted · Snap, 0.36 xG3–3
- OT 1:09ATLBryan LittleGWGUnassisted · Snap, 0.13 xG4–3
Penalties (2)
- P1 0:37ATLTim Stapleton: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P3 7:23ATLZach Bogosian: Penalty shot holding on breakaway0 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Little won the faceoff against Fisher
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Atlanta Thrashers
Forward lines
- bestAntropov – Ladd – Peverley14:44
xG 1.35–0.96 (58%)attempts 21–21goals 1–0
- Boulton – Thorburn – Slater7:49
xG 0.21–0.34 (38%)attempts 8–6goals 1–0
- Modin – Stapleton – Burmistrov7:42
xG 0.06–0.29 (17%)attempts 4–8goals 0–0
- Stewart – Little – Kane14:52
xG 0.24–0.61 (28%)attempts 9–16goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Enstrom – Byfuglien19:50
xG 1.09–1.09 (50%)attempts 22–26goals 1–0
- Sopel – Enstrom2:17
xG 0.00–0.01 (0%)attempts 0–4goals 0–0
- Sopel – Hainsey10:16
xG 0.45–0.90 (33%)attempts 14–10goals 1–1
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestRegin – Shannon – Winchester6:18
xG 0.79–0.07 (92%)attempts 13–3goals 0–1
- Kovalev – Spezza – Michalek15:50
xG 0.80–0.57 (58%)attempts 21–14goals 0–0
- Alfredsson – Fisher – Foligno16:29
xG 0.64–0.60 (52%)attempts 20–18goals 0–0
- Ruutu – Neil – Kelly12:18
xG 0.52–0.66 (44%)attempts 11–8goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestGonchar – Kuba17:42
xG 0.90–0.26 (78%)attempts 18–9goals 1–0
- Phillips – Karlsson19:24
xG 1.10–0.59 (65%)attempts 22–15goals 1–0
- Gonchar – Karlsson2:23
xG 0.18–0.12 (59%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
OTT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line OTT is favoured, below it ATL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 65% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (OTT − ATL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).