Mon, Dec 13, 2010·Bridgestone Arena, Nashville
New York Islanders 0, Nashville Predators 5
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 51% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYI | 07 | 011 | 010 | 028 |
| NSH | 18 | 211 | 27 | 526 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 11:15NSHSergei KostitsynPPGWGAssists: Cody Franson, Martin Erat · Snap, 0.06 xG0–1
- P2 5:22NSHPatric HornqvistAssists: Shane O'Brien · Wrist, 0.33 xG0–2
- P2 7:31NSHJerred SmithsonAssists: Sergei Kostitsyn, Ryan Suter · Wrist, 0.14 xG0–3
- P3 13:55NSHPatric HornqvistAssists: Cody Franson · Wrist, 0.14 xG0–4
- P3 18:15NSHNick SpalingPPAssists: Shea Weber, Steve Sullivan · Wrist, 0.22 xG0–5
Penalties (7)
- P1 9:37NYIPA Parenteau: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 13:13NYIRob Schremp: Hooking2 min
- P1 14:34NSHRyan Suter: Tripping2 min
- P3 1:10NSHJoel Ward: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P3 11:13NSHPatric Hornqvist: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 17:09NYIMatt Moulson: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P3 17:43NYIJames Wisniewski: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Goc won the faceoff against Schremp
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestParenteau – Moulson – Tavares10:35
xG 0.64–0.12 (85%)attempts 11–4goals 0–0
- Nielsen – Rakhshani – Grabner8:10
xG 0.60–0.35 (63%)attempts 8–9goals 0–0
- Sim – Schremp – Comeau12:26
xG 0.59–0.41 (59%)attempts 15–9goals 0–1
- Konopka – Joensuu – Martin6:43
xG 0.24–0.38 (38%)attempts 6–6goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestWisniewski – Hillen9:49
xG 0.59–0.15 (80%)attempts 13–6goals 0–0
- MacDonald – Hamonic12:28
xG 0.45–0.29 (61%)attempts 9–7goals 0–0
- Gervais – MacDonald2:06
xG 0.37–0.24 (60%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- Sullivan – O'Reilly – Wilson9:20
xG 0.27–0.27 (51%)attempts 10–8goals 0–0
- Erat – Goc – Kostitsyn9:49
xG 0.42–0.53 (44%)attempts 10–10goals 0–0
- Smithson – Ward – Tootoo10:26
xG 0.27–0.41 (39%)attempts 6–9goals 0–0
- Dumont – Hornqvist – Spaling8:47
xG 0.59–0.85 (41%)attempts 5–11goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestO'Brien – Franson11:30
xG 0.79–0.64 (55%)attempts 11–16goals 1–0
- Bouillon – Klein16:29
xG 0.28–0.43 (39%)attempts 9–13goals 0–0
- Suter – Weber14:44
xG 0.52–0.98 (35%)attempts 13–14goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NSH is favoured, below it NYI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 51% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NSH − NYI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).