Mon, Dec 13, 2010·Pepsi Center, Denver
Chicago Blackhawks 5, Colorado Avalanche 7
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 75% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHI | 314 | 110 | 110 | 534 |
| COL | 38 | 112 | 310 | 730 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:48COLBrandon YipAssists: Kevin Porter, Paul Stastny · Wrist, 0.10 xG0–1
- P1 5:28CHITroy BrouwerPPAssists: Tomas Kopecky, Jonathan Toews · Wrist, 0.17 xG1–1
- P1 6:25COLPaul StastnyAssists: Brandon Yip · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–2
- P1 15:24CHIJack SkilleAssists: Jonathan Toews, Viktor Stalberg · Wrist, 0.08 xG2–2
- P1 15:47COLCody McLeodAssists: Philippe Dupuis, Ryan O'Reilly · Wrist, 0.17 xG2–3
- P1 18:17CHIBryan BickellAssists: Troy Brouwer, Jake Dowell · Wrist, 0.05 xG3–3
- P2 0:40COLMatt DucheneAssists: Greg Mauldin · Backhand, 0.04 xG3–4
- P2 19:09CHIJeremy MorinUnassisted · Wrist, 0.02 xG4–4
- P3 11:43CHITroy BrouwerPPAssists: Duncan Keith, Patrick Sharp · Tip-in, 0.11 xG5–4
- P3 17:36COLTomas FleischmannAssists: David Jones, Matt Duchene · Wrist, 0.03 xG5–5
- P3 18:36COLMatt DucheneGWGAssists: Tomas Fleischmann · Tip-in, 0.14 xG5–6
- P3 19:37COLRyan O'ReillyENAssists: Tomas Fleischmann, Paul Stastny · Backhand, 0.59 xG5–7
Penalties (9)
- P1 4:54COLKevin Shattenkirk: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P1 18:18CHIJohn Scott: Fighting5 min
- P1 18:18COLDavid Koci: Fighting5 min
- P2 8:38COLBrandon Yip: Hooking2 min
- P2 14:55CHIJeremy Morin: Hooking2 min
- P2 16:15COLDavid Jones: High sticking2 min
- P3 2:27COLTomas Fleischmann: Interference2 min
- P3 7:41CHIPatrick Sharp: Cross checking2 min
- P3 11:03COLKevin Porter: Too many men on the ice2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Duchene won the faceoff against Dowell
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestSkille – Stalberg – Toews9:19
xG 0.27–0.12 (70%)attempts 11–6goals 1–1
- Bickell – Dowell – Brouwer13:21
xG 0.27–0.46 (37%)attempts 14–11goals 1–1
- Kopecky – Sharp – Morin9:53
xG 0.31–1.40 (18%)attempts 10–13goals 1–3
Defence pairs
- Cullimore – Boynton7:01
xG 0.33–0.51 (39%)attempts 9–7goals 0–0
- Keith – Seabrook18:23
xG 0.42–0.67 (39%)attempts 17–15goals 1–5
- Campbell – Hjalmarsson10:23
xG 0.20–0.90 (18%)attempts 12–11goals 1–1
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestPorter – Yip – Stastny10:06
xG 0.53–0.17 (76%)attempts 7–10goals 1–1
- Mauldin – Winnik – O'Reilly9:25
xG 0.28–0.10 (74%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
- Fleischmann – Jones – Duchene9:35
xG 0.39–0.33 (55%)attempts 11–9goals 2–2
Defence pairs
- bestFoote – Hunwick11:57
xG 0.81–0.32 (71%)attempts 11–11goals 1–2
- Liles – O'Byrne13:03
xG 0.56–0.22 (72%)attempts 9–12goals 1–0
- Wilson – Shattenkirk13:02
xG 0.60–0.36 (63%)attempts 8–16goals 2–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
COL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line COL is favoured, below it CHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 75% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (COL − CHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).