Mon, Dec 13, 2010·HP Pavilion at San Jose, San Jose
Dallas Stars 3, San Jose Sharks 2 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 55% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | 111 | 110 | 07 | 03 | 2 | 331 |
| SJS | 08 | 210 | 013 | 02 | 1 | 233 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:17DALJamie BennAssists: Mike Ribeiro, Nicklas Grossmann · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–0
- P2 6:56SJSDerek JoslinAssists: Joe Thornton, Patrick Marleau · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–1
- P2 8:56SJSRyane CloweAssists: Benn Ferriero, Jason Demers · Deflected, 0.20 xG1–2
- P2 17:40DALMike RibeiroPPAssists: Stephane Robidas, Steve Ott · Deflected, 0.13 xG2–2
Shootout
- 1. SJS Logan Couture stopped
- 2. DAL Jamie Benn scored
- 3. SJS Joe Pavelski scored
- 4. DAL Brad Richards scored
- 5. SJS Ryane Clowe stopped
Penalties (4)
- P1 14:23SJSJamie McGinn: Roughing2 min
- P2 17:00SJSJoe Pavelski: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 8:56SJSDan Boyle: Hooking2 min
- P3 14:41DALSteve Ott: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Ribeiro won the faceoff against Couture
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestMorrow – Ribeiro – Benn9:21
xG 0.43–0.27 (62%)attempts 12–8goals 1–0
- Ott – Segal – Burish9:10
xG 0.38–0.29 (56%)attempts 5–10goals 0–0
- Sutherby – Gagnon – Wandell4:35
xG 0.09–0.10 (45%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
- Richards – Eriksson – Neal12:34
xG 0.18–0.46 (28%)attempts 7–12goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestRobidas – Grossmann17:33
xG 1.00–0.63 (61%)attempts 14–18goals 1–0
- Robidas – Skrastins2:18
xG 0.01–0.03 (34%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
- Robidas – Woywitka2:01
xG 0.04–0.08 (37%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestMarleau – Pavelski – McCarthy3:06
xG 0.15–0.08 (65%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
- Pavelski – McGinn – McCarthy8:38
xG 0.24–0.22 (52%)attempts 8–7goals 0–0
- Thornton – Heatley – Mitchell2:35
xG 0.00–0.03 (0%)attempts 0–1goals 0–0
- Mayers – Nichol – McGinn2:31
xG 0.00–0.05 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestVlasic – Demers16:32
xG 0.97–0.72 (57%)attempts 19–11goals 1–1
- Boyle – Joslin16:30
xG 0.48–0.39 (55%)attempts 13–15goals 1–0
- Boyle – Wallin2:26
xG 0.01–0.02 (45%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
SJS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line SJS is favoured, below it DAL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 55% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (SJS − DAL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).