Tue, Dec 14, 2010·Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia
Pittsburgh Penguins 2, Philadelphia Flyers 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 67% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | 07 | 111 | 15 | 223 |
| PHI | 112 | 111 | 114 | 337 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 12:32PHIClaude GirouxAssists: Daniel Brière, Scott Hartnell · Wrist, 0.15 xG0–1
- P2 8:23PITEvgeni MalkinPPAssists: Alex Goligoski, Sidney Crosby · Slap, 0.05 xG1–1
- P2 12:28PHINikolay ZherdevAssists: James van Riemsdyk, Sean O'Donnell · Snap, 0.14 xG1–2
- P3 3:18PITEvgeni MalkinPPAssists: Sidney Crosby, Kris Letang · Snap, 0.08 xG2–2
- P3 9:54PHIScott HartnellPPGWGAssists: Chris Pronger, Kimmo Timonen · Tip-in, 0.16 xG2–3
Penalties (12)
- P2 0:29PHIAndreas Nodl: High sticking2 min
- P2 1:52PITMatt Cooke: Roughing2 min
- P2 7:13PHIDaniel Brière: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 8:32PITChris Conner: Holding2 min
- P2 13:14PITDeryk Engelland: Hooking2 min
- P2 18:15PITZbynek Michalek: Holding2 min
- P3 1:41PHIDaniel Brière: Holding the stick2 min · PPG
- P3 1:41PITMax Talbot: Interference2 min
- P3 2:59PHIMatt Carle: High sticking2 min
- P3 6:14PITMike Rupp: Tripping2 min
- P3 9:06PITEvgeni Malkin: Interference2 min · PPG
- P3 17:34PHIDarroll Powe: Interference goalkeeper2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Richards won the faceoff against Crosby
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestDupuis – Malkin – Crosby12:14
xG 1.00–0.77 (56%)attempts 13–12goals 0–1
- Kennedy – Conner – Letestu6:52
xG 0.15–0.08 (66%)attempts 9–2goals 0–0
- Adams – Rupp – Jeffrey5:12
xG 0.04–0.11 (25%)attempts 2–7goals 0–0
- Malkin – Kennedy – Crosby2:17
xG 0.06–0.15 (28%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMartin – Michalek10:09
xG 0.76–0.48 (61%)attempts 11–6goals 0–0
- Martin – Goligoski3:50
xG 0.08–0.18 (31%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Engelland – Goligoski9:10
xG 0.28–0.50 (36%)attempts 6–8goals 0–1
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestBrière – Hartnell – Leino7:59
xG 0.59–0.10 (85%)attempts 9–6goals 0–0
- Zherdev – Carter – van Riemsdyk7:40
xG 0.46–0.11 (81%)attempts 5–7goals 0–0
- Betts – Carcillo – Powe5:06
xG 0.14–0.14 (50%)attempts 7–2goals 0–0
- Richards – Giroux – Nodl9:42
xG 0.62–0.84 (42%)attempts 8–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestTimonen – Coburn10:37
xG 0.89–0.13 (88%)attempts 14–7goals 0–0
- O'Donnell – Meszaros11:22
xG 0.29–0.20 (60%)attempts 5–9goals 1–0
- Pronger – Carle13:57
xG 1.06–1.07 (50%)attempts 15–17goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHI is favoured, below it PIT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 67% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PHI − PIT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).