Tue, Dec 14, 2010·Rexall Place, Edmonton
Toronto Maple Leafs 4, Edmonton Oilers 1
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 73% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 112 | 213 | 19 | 434 |
| EDM | 112 | 03 | 09 | 124 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:55TORDion PhaneufAssists: Phil Kessel, Colby Armstrong · Slap, 0.02 xG1–0
- P1 11:45EDMJordan EberleAssists: Sam Gagner, Ryan Whitney · Wrist, 0.15 xG1–1
- P2 8:28TORMikhail GrabovskiPPGWGAssists: Clarke MacArthur, Brett Lebda · Tip-in, 0.13 xG2–1
- P2 17:38TORKris VersteegAssists: Luke Schenn, Tim Brent · Tip-in, 0.10 xG3–1
- P3 9:47TORPhil KesselPPAssists: Kris Versteeg, Tyler Bozak · Snap, 0.17 xG4–1
Penalties (13)
- P1 2:01TORColby Armstrong: Roughing2 min
- P2 2:42EDMGilbert Brule: Elbowing2 min
- P2 6:38EDMZack Stortini: Kneeing2 min · PPG
- P2 12:19EDMZack Stortini: Fighting5 min
- P2 12:19TORColton Orr: Fighting5 min
- P2 12:29EDMSteve MacIntyre: Roughing2 min
- P2 14:40EDMGilbert Brule: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P3 6:16TORDion Phaneuf: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P3 8:49EDMMagnus Paajarvi: Holding2 min · PPG
- P3 11:35TORColton Orr: Misconduct10 min
- P3 11:35EDMSteve MacIntyre: Misconduct10 min
- P3 15:36TORKris Versteeg: Elbowing2 min
- P3 19:30TORPhil Kessel: Too many men on the ice2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Cogliano won the faceoff against Grabovski
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestMitchell – Versteeg – Kadri9:26
xG 0.72–0.30 (70%)attempts 13–7goals 0–0
- Armstrong – Kessel – Bozak11:04
xG 0.59–0.48 (55%)attempts 10–10goals 1–0
- Orr – Sjostrom – Brent4:37
xG 0.07–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- MacArthur – Grabovski – Kulemin11:34
xG 0.54–1.27 (30%)attempts 16–15goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestLebda – Gunnarsson8:00
xG 0.87–0.18 (83%)attempts 11–4goals 0–0
- Beauchemin – Schenn3:45
xG 0.14–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–1goals 1–0
- Kaberle – Schenn12:34
xG 0.55–0.74 (43%)attempts 12–12goals 0–0
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestGagner – Eberle – Hall12:16
xG 1.45–0.59 (71%)attempts 19–10goals 1–2
- Fraser – Stortini – MacIntyre4:02
xG 0.00–0.08 (0%)attempts 1–5goals 0–0
- Jones – Brule – Paajarvi7:45
xG 0.25–0.45 (36%)attempts 6–13goals 0–0
- Penner – Cogliano – Omark10:21
xG 0.46–0.78 (37%)attempts 9–13goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGilbert – Peckham11:35
xG 0.86–0.39 (69%)attempts 14–13goals 0–0
- Foster – Smid9:28
xG 0.43–0.23 (65%)attempts 9–8goals 0–0
- Foster – Whitney2:29
xG 0.23–0.05 (83%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
EDM's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line EDM is favoured, below it TOR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 73% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (EDM − TOR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).