Wed, Dec 15, 2010·CONSOL Energy Center, Pittsburgh
New York Rangers 4, Pittsburgh Penguins 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 53% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYR | 06 | 06 | 410 | 422 |
| PIT | 115 | 07 | 06 | 128 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 19:47PITEvgeni MalkinAssists: Sidney Crosby, Brooks Orpik · Wrist, 0.18 xG0–1
- P3 10:10NYRErik ChristensenPPAssists: Marian Gaborik · Snap, 0.03 xG1–1
- P3 10:25NYRAlex FrolovGWGAssists: Brian Boyle, Dan Girardi · Backhand, 0.09 xG2–1
- P3 14:55NYRArtem AnisimovAssists: Michal Rozsival, Michael Del Zotto · Wrist, 0.04 xG3–1
- P3 16:29NYRBrian BoyleAssists: Alex Frolov, Marc Staal · Snap, 0.07 xG4–1
Penalties (8)
- P1 2:44NYRDan Girardi: Tripping2 min
- P1 9:36PITKris Letang: Tripping2 min
- P1 14:10NYRBrian Boyle: Holding2 min
- P2 7:36PITMatt Cooke: Cross checking2 min
- P2 14:27NYRSean Avery: Charging2 min
- P3 3:58NYRSean Avery: Fighting5 min
- P3 3:58PITArron Asham: Fighting5 min
- P3 9:50PITMatt Cooke: Tripping2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Talbot won the faceoff against Anisimov
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestFrolov – Boyle – Prust8:59
xG 0.61–0.14 (82%)attempts 8–6goals 2–0
- Fedotenko – Gaborik – Stepan9:50
xG 0.22–0.23 (49%)attempts 7–9goals 0–0
- Drury – Dubinsky – Anisimov7:19
xG 0.09–0.33 (21%)attempts 6–6goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestEminger – Sauer9:43
xG 0.25–0.18 (58%)attempts 8–10goals 0–0
- Rozsival – Del Zotto16:49
xG 0.23–0.51 (31%)attempts 7–15goals 1–0
- Staal – Girardi17:30
xG 0.54–0.82 (40%)attempts 10–23goals 2–1
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestAdams – Rupp – Jeffrey3:18
xG 0.13–0.05 (75%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Asham – Dupuis – Talbot2:22
xG 0.09–0.02 (81%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Kennedy – Conner – Letestu11:28
xG 0.32–0.34 (49%)attempts 11–7goals 0–0
- Dupuis – Malkin – Crosby9:36
xG 0.32–0.39 (45%)attempts 8–8goals 1–2
Defence pairs
- bestOrpik – Letang12:48
xG 0.70–0.52 (57%)attempts 16–10goals 1–0
- Martin – Michalek13:22
xG 0.37–0.29 (55%)attempts 15–8goals 0–0
- Martin – Goligoski2:23
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 1–0goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PIT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PIT is favoured, below it NYR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 53% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PIT − NYR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).