Wed, Dec 15, 2010·BankAtlantic Center, Sunrise
Carolina Hurricanes 4, Florida Panthers 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 61% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR | 012 | 110 | 312 | 434 |
| FLA | 312 | 011 | 04 | 327 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:29FLAEvgenii DadonovAssists: Marty Reasoner, Shawn Matthias · Tip-in, 0.13 xG0–1
- P1 1:42FLAMichael FrolikAssists: Chris Higgins, Stephen Weiss · Backhand, 0.24 xG0–2
- P1 5:16FLABryan McCabePPAssists: Dennis Wideman, Mike Santorelli · Slap, 0.11 xG0–3
- P2 14:39CARErik ColeAssists: Jeff Skinner, Eric Staal · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–3
- P3 7:02CARJamie McBainAssists: Joni Pitkanen, Sergei Samsonov · Wrist, 0.03 xG2–3
- P3 12:20CARTuomo RuutuPPAssists: Jeff Skinner, Sergei Samsonov · Tip-in, 0.56 xG3–3
- P3 13:48CARTuomo RuutuGWGUnassisted · Wrist, 0.09 xG4–3
Penalties (7)
- P1 4:29CARBryan Rodney: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 5:02CARChad LaRose: Tripping2 min
- P1 12:10FLADarcy Hordichuk: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P2 0:45FLAShawn Matthias: Hooking2 min
- P3 10:44FLAMichael Frolik: Too many men on the ice2 min · PPG
- P3 11:38FLAJason Garrison: Hooking2 min
- P3 18:56CARChad LaRose: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Staal won the faceoff against Weiss
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- Ruutu – Jokinen – Sutter10:48
xG 0.55–0.53 (51%)attempts 9–10goals 1–1
- Samsonov – Bodie – Carter7:22
xG 0.14–0.19 (43%)attempts 11–7goals 1–0
- LaRose – Dwyer – Tlusty9:30
xG 0.23–0.29 (44%)attempts 12–8goals 0–0
- Cole – Staal – Skinner13:46
xG 0.33–1.05 (24%)attempts 10–14goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestCorvo – Pitkanen3:29
xG 0.21–0.05 (82%)attempts 3–1goals 1–0
- Gleason – White3:32
xG 0.16–0.00 (100%)attempts 7–2goals 0–0
- Rodney – McBain2:10
xG 0.03–0.07 (33%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestWeiss – Higgins – Frolik12:42
xG 0.88–0.19 (82%)attempts 10–11goals 1–0
- Reinprecht – Hordichuk – Thomas4:14
xG 0.27–0.05 (83%)attempts 8–6goals 0–0
- Reasoner – Matthias – Dadonov9:10
xG 0.39–0.45 (46%)attempts 7–6goals 1–0
- Bernier – Booth – Santorelli12:51
xG 0.30–0.55 (36%)attempts 8–19goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestAllen – Wideman14:24
xG 0.59–0.32 (65%)attempts 12–13goals 1–1
- Weaver – Garrison14:03
xG 0.87–0.68 (56%)attempts 11–16goals 1–1
- McCabe – Ellerby10:40
xG 0.26–0.30 (46%)attempts 10–14goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
FLA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line FLA is favoured, below it CAR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 61% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (FLA − CAR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).