Wed, Dec 15, 2010·United Center, Chicago
Colorado Avalanche 4, Chicago Blackhawks 3
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 65% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL | 16 | 06 | 311 | 423 |
| CHI | 014 | 116 | 28 | 338 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 13:39COLGreg MauldinAssists: Daniel Winnik, Adam Foote · Wrist, 0.14 xG1–0
- P2 1:14CHIBryan BickellAssists: Brent Seabrook, Duncan Keith · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–1
- P3 4:30COLTomas FleischmannPPAssists: Paul Stastny, Matt Duchene · Tip-in, 0.18 xG2–1
- P3 6:24COLTomas FleischmannPPAssists: Matt Duchene, Kevin Shattenkirk · Backhand, 0.20 xG3–1
- P3 9:37CHIJonathan ToewsAssists: Jassen Cullimore, Tomas Kopecky · Wrist, 0.55 xG3–2
- P3 14:42COLTomas FleischmannGWGAssists: David Jones, Ryan O'Byrne · Wrist, 0.24 xG4–2
- P3 19:58CHITroy BrouwerAssists: Bryan Bickell, Brian Campbell · Wrist, 0.19 xG4–3
Penalties (7)
- P1 4:40COLBrandon Yip: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P1 6:30COLPhilippe Dupuis: Roughing2 min
- P2 5:37CHIJake Dowell: Holding2 min
- P2 5:37COLDavid Jones: Interference2 min
- P2 13:02COLRyan O'Byrne: Boarding2 min
- P2 16:44CHIBryan Bickell: Hooking2 min
- P3 2:40CHIJordan Hendry: High sticking double minor4 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Duchene won the faceoff against Toews
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestYip – Winnik – O'Reilly3:22
xG 0.38–0.07 (84%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Mauldin – Winnik – O'Reilly8:26
xG 0.51–0.28 (65%)attempts 7–12goals 1–0
- Fleischmann – Jones – Duchene9:37
xG 0.53–0.34 (60%)attempts 7–13goals 1–1
- Porter – Yip – Stastny7:29
xG 0.07–0.09 (43%)attempts 1–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestO'Byrne – Wilson2:43
xG 0.21–0.01 (94%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Wilson – Shattenkirk10:55
xG 0.45–0.30 (60%)attempts 8–9goals 0–1
- Foote – O'Byrne2:20
xG 0.14–0.10 (59%)attempts 1–4goals 1–0
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestSharp – Skille – Toews3:11
xG 0.31–0.00 (100%)attempts 7–0goals 0–0
- Skille – Stalberg – Toews6:47
xG 0.39–0.17 (70%)attempts 9–2goals 0–0
- Kopecky – Sharp – Morin3:43
xG 0.08–0.36 (18%)attempts 4–5goals 0–1
- Bolland – Bickell – Brouwer9:29
xG 0.10–0.48 (17%)attempts 7–2goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestCullimore – Boynton4:43
xG 0.75–0.40 (65%)attempts 7–7goals 1–1
- Campbell – Hjalmarsson11:12
xG 0.46–0.20 (69%)attempts 15–4goals 0–0
- Keith – Seabrook13:50
xG 0.25–0.35 (42%)attempts 16–6goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CHI is favoured, below it COL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 65% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CHI − COL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).