Thu, Dec 16, 2010·Nassau Veterans Memorial Coliseum, Uniondale
Anaheim Ducks 2, New York Islanders 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 53% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANA | 06 | 113 | 113 | 232 |
| NYI | 312 | 010 | 07 | 329 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 15:06NYIPA ParenteauPPAssists: John Tavares, James Wisniewski · Snap, 0.13 xG0–1
- P1 15:34NYIBlake ComeauAssists: Rob Schremp, Jon Sim · Wrist, 0.10 xG0–2
- P1 16:45NYIMatt MoulsonGWGAssists: PA Parenteau · Backhand, 0.30 xG0–3
- P2 10:35ANAJoffrey LupulPPAssists: Saku Koivu, Jason Blake · Wrist, 0.15 xG1–3
- P3 1:30ANAJason BlakeAssists: Cam Fowler, Joffrey Lupul · Backhand, 0.09 xG2–3
Penalties (14)
- P1 1:52NYIMilan Jurcina: High sticking2 min
- P1 5:38NYITrevor Gillies: Fighting5 min
- P1 5:38ANASheldon Brookbank: Fighting5 min
- P1 8:47NYIMatt Moulson: Interference2 min
- P1 14:44ANAAndy Sutton: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P1 17:27NYIPA Parenteau: Roughing2 min
- P1 17:27ANACorey Perry: Roughing2 min
- P1 17:27ANACorey Perry: Roughing2 min
- P2 3:37NYIRadek Martinek: Slashing2 min
- P2 8:38NYIMatt Martin: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P2 17:33ANAGeorge Parros: Fighting5 min
- P2 17:33NYIMatt Martin: Fighting5 min
- P3 14:14NYIJesse Joensuu: Interference2 min
- P3 16:46ANABrandon McMillan: Interference goalkeeper2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Tavares won the faceoff against Koivu
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestGetzlaf – Perry – Ryan14:35
xG 0.83–0.53 (61%)attempts 18–11goals 0–1
- Bonino – McMillan – Sexton8:54
xG 0.53–0.25 (67%)attempts 12–4goals 0–0
- Koivu – Blake – Lupul10:08
xG 0.20–1.41 (13%)attempts 7–19goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestVisnovsky – Fowler3:31
xG 0.60–0.26 (70%)attempts 8–2goals 0–0
- Lilja – Fowler9:10
xG 0.34–0.23 (60%)attempts 10–8goals 1–0
- Brookbank – Sbisa7:23
xG 0.26–0.27 (49%)attempts 9–4goals 0–1
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestParenteau – Moulson – Tavares13:08
xG 1.39–0.47 (75%)attempts 16–14goals 1–0
- Sim – Schremp – Comeau10:39
xG 0.43–0.21 (67%)attempts 11–8goals 1–0
- Nielsen – Joensuu – Grabner6:00
xG 0.16–0.14 (54%)attempts 4–4goals 0–1
- Konopka – Nielsen – Joensuu2:00
xG 0.00–0.12 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMartinek – Wisniewski16:11
xG 1.03–0.54 (65%)attempts 17–14goals 0–1
- MacDonald – Hamonic16:39
xG 0.56–0.28 (67%)attempts 13–16goals 1–0
- Jurcina – Hillen7:51
xG 0.51–0.43 (54%)attempts 9–8goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYI is favoured, below it ANA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 53% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYI − ANA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).