Thu, Dec 16, 2010·Philips Arena, Atlanta
Carolina Hurricanes 3, Atlanta Thrashers 2 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Atlanta Thrashers win this game 81% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR | 010 | 010 | 29 | 00 | 2 | 329 |
| ATL | 018 | 213 | 011 | 05 | 1 | 247 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 8:45ATLEvander KanePPAssists: Anthony Stewart, Johnny Oduya · Snap, 0.14 xG0–1
- P2 18:56ATLAnthony StewartAssists: Evander Kane, Dustin Byfuglien · Tip-in, 0.32 xG0–2
- P3 0:26CARBrandon SutterAssists: Tuomo Ruutu, Jamie McBain · Tip-in, 0.13 xG1–2
- P3 6:00CAREric StaalAssists: Joni Pitkanen · Snap, 0.17 xG2–2
Shootout
- 1. ATL Nik Antropov scored
- 2. CAR Jeff Skinner stopped
- 3. ATL Bryan Little stopped
- 4. CAR Jussi Jokinen scored
- 5. ATL Dustin Byfuglien stopped
- 6. CAR Sergei Samsonov scored
Penalties (9)
- P1 14:36ATLBen Eager: Charging2 min
- P1 14:39CARErik Cole: Tripping2 min
- P1 15:07CARJeff Skinner: Tripping2 min
- P1 17:34ATLEric Boulton: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P2 2:12ATLBen Eager: Fighting5 min
- P2 2:12CARTroy Bodie: Fighting5 min
- P2 2:12ATLBen Eager: Misconduct10 min
- P2 6:47CARErik Cole: Holding2 min · PPG
- P3 13:09CARJoni Pitkanen: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Peverley won the faceoff against Staal
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestLaRose – Dwyer – Tlusty3:30
xG 0.26–0.02 (94%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Samsonov – LaRose – Dwyer8:13
xG 0.47–0.29 (61%)attempts 12–7goals 0–0
- Ruutu – Sutter – Skinner5:05
xG 0.30–0.15 (66%)attempts 2–4goals 1–0
- Ruutu – Jokinen – Sutter8:48
xG 0.45–0.40 (53%)attempts 10–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGleason – McBain4:56
xG 0.47–0.10 (82%)attempts 5–3goals 1–0
- Rodney – McBain2:42
xG 0.35–0.02 (95%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Pitkanen – White12:09
xG 0.60–0.74 (45%)attempts 14–17goals 1–0
Atlanta Thrashers
Forward lines
- bestAntropov – Ladd – Peverley10:19
xG 0.87–0.30 (74%)attempts 13–8goals 0–0
- Stewart – Little – Kane13:41
xG 1.26–0.77 (62%)attempts 16–15goals 1–1
- Antropov – Eager – Burmistrov4:17
xG 0.45–0.36 (56%)attempts 9–5goals 0–0
- Ladd – Peverley – Bergfors5:09
xG 0.17–0.10 (63%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestEnstrom – Byfuglien17:39
xG 1.91–0.98 (66%)attempts 27–16goals 1–0
- Sopel – Hainsey13:11
xG 0.32–0.33 (49%)attempts 11–8goals 0–0
- Oduya – Bogosian16:23
xG 0.90–1.01 (47%)attempts 18–20goals 0–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ATL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ATL is favoured, below it CAR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Atlanta Thrashers win this game 81% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ATL − CAR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).