Thu, Dec 16, 2010·Centre Bell, Montreal
Boston Bruins 3, Montréal Canadiens 4
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 63% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS | 19 | 115 | 113 | 337 |
| MTL | 317 | 117 | 07 | 441 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:04MTLMichael CammalleriUnassisted · Wrist, 0.36 xG0–1
- P1 6:24MTLMaxim LapierreAssists: Mathieu Darche, Alexandre Picard · Wrist, 0.13 xG0–2
- P1 15:52BOSBlake WheelerAssists: Mark Recchi, Patrice Bergeron · Wrist, 0.20 xG1–2
- P1 19:30MTLMax PaciorettyAssists: Scott Gomez, Jaroslav Spacek · Backhand, 0.06 xG1–3
- P2 6:54BOSMarc SavardAssists: Andrew Ference, Tyler Seguin · Tip-in, 0.08 xG2–3
- P2 16:54MTLBrian GiontaGWGAssists: Max Pacioretty, Scott Gomez · Tip-in, 0.13 xG2–4
- P3 15:10BOSMilan LucicPPAssists: Patrice Bergeron, Marc Savard · Tip-in, 0.14 xG3–4
Penalties (9)
- P1 1:04BOSSteven Kampfer: Penalty shot hooking on breakaway0 min
- P1 3:46MTLP.K. Subban: Hooking2 min
- P1 17:29BOSGregory Campbell: Roughing2 min
- P2 9:45BOSSteven Kampfer: Holding2 min
- P2 11:31BOSDavid Krejci: Fighting5 min
- P2 11:31MTLMichael Cammalleri: Fighting5 min
- P2 19:29MTLMathieu Darche: Interference2 min
- P3 5:08MTLP.K. Subban: Tripping2 min
- P3 14:06MTLRoman Hamrlik: Tripping2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Eller won the faceoff against Campbell
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestRecchi – Bergeron – Wheeler9:25
xG 0.74–0.25 (74%)attempts 17–10goals 1–0
- Savard – Wheeler – Seguin2:01
xG 0.00–0.03 (0%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Savard – Ryder – Seguin6:02
xG 0.41–0.47 (47%)attempts 7–10goals 1–0
- Horton – Krejci – Lucic12:20
xG 0.37–0.45 (45%)attempts 16–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestFerence – McQuaid5:17
xG 0.35–0.22 (61%)attempts 5–9goals 1–0
- Ference – Seidenberg4:47
xG 0.36–0.25 (59%)attempts 4–6goals 1–1
- Seidenberg – Boychuk11:38
xG 0.36–0.36 (50%)attempts 14–9goals 0–0
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestDarche – Lapierre – Eller7:26
xG 0.30–0.06 (82%)attempts 5–5goals 1–0
- Cammalleri – Plekanec – Kostitsyn12:04
xG 0.45–0.34 (56%)attempts 10–15goals 0–0
- Gomez – Gionta – Pacioretty10:45
xG 0.69–0.62 (53%)attempts 16–12goals 2–1
- Halpern – Moen – Pouliot7:19
xG 0.23–0.75 (23%)attempts 7–14goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestPicard – Subban10:54
xG 1.14–0.46 (71%)attempts 22–7goals 2–1
- Hamrlik – Spacek18:19
xG 0.41–0.67 (38%)attempts 14–26goals 0–0
- Gill – Gorges16:09
xG 0.31–0.77 (28%)attempts 11–19goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MTL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MTL is favoured, below it BOS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 63% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MTL − BOS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).